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Decent Recovery as Sentiment Swoons Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds have made it to Friday’s jobs report without a meaningful extension of the corrective sell-off that began 2 days ago. That wasn’t a given in the middle of today’s trading session. Lutnick’s comments on tariff exemptions fueled a risk-on move (buy stocks, sell bonds) in the late AM hours, but it didn’t last long. Stocks reversed course in the PM hours and pulled bonds along for the ride. MBS were unchanged to a hair stronger and 10yr yields were able to make it fairly close to unchanged by the 3pm close.
Econ Data / Events
Jobless Claims
221k vs 235k f’cast, 242k prev
Market Movement Recap
08:39 AM Losing some ground after Jobless Claims. MBS back to unchanged on the day and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.288
10:41 AM Losing more ground after Lutnick’s comments on USMCA tariff delays. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 6.1bps at 4.337
01:28 PM Bouncing back over the past 2 hours as stocks swoon again. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) on the day at 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.293
03:24 PM fairly flat in the PM hours. Stocks and bonds are moving together as Trump speaks. MBS up 1 tick and 10yr yields only half a bp higher at 4.281
