Inventory Watch – It’s Go Time!

Since October, I’ve been warning about a surge of inventory coming in 2025.

It won’t be that obvious to the casual observers, and many won’t notice at all. Even the early statistics and/or the actual transacting may mask it somewhat because, who knows? There might be enough demand to pick it all up!

Instead of lathering on about the theory, let’s review an actual real-life example from this weekend.

There was a Compass Private Exclusive that caught the interest of my buyers. On Wednesday we made arrangements to meet there on Sunday for a tour.

By the time we got to Sunday, THREE other new listings hit the open market nearby, and then the Private Exclusive went onto the MLS too (this week I’ll give an 2025 update on the Compass PEs).

We toured all four.

Here’s what we learned:

The environment changed dramatically on August 17th, and more buyers are motivated to attend open houses rather than hire a buyer-agent. But three of the four didn’t do open house, and the one that did sent an assistant who wasn’t try to sell it – they were just there wasting an afternoon at a stranger’s house.

Only two of the four were staged. In a competitive environment, the two that weren’t staged got eliminated quickly. Not only was it harder to imagine what could be done with those, but it also sends the sub-conscious message that the seller and listing agent aren’t that motivated to sell.

If the seller and listing agent don’t take a vested interest in selling the house, then they are relying on the buyer-agent to get the job done. Don’t be surprised if the offers, if any, come in low!

How experienced and competent are those buyer-agents at talking the $1,000/sf talk?

There were 50 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad in the past week, and 34 new pendings so somebody is getting lucky. But at what price? The climb in inventory may pause occasionally, but it should be trending steadily higher in the coming weeks. Unless sellers and listing agents are totally prepared for surprises like three new listings nearby and two inches of rain!

Oh, and there will be doomer talk too:

Get Good Help!

The $0 – $2,000,000 Market:

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

The $4,000,000+ Market:

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

NSDCC List Price Quartiles