Rather turbulent in recent years with wild fluctuations and
large gains and losses, March has been taking some mean end-of-quarter hits. In
post-election years since 1950, March has tended to open strongly, and strength has generally persisted until shortly after mid-month (dashed arrow
below). At which point, the major indexes lost momentum and closed out March
with some choppy trading. Whereas over the recent 21 years March has trended
lower through mid-month then rallied in the second half.
March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first
quarter, which brings with it quarterly Quadruple Witching and an abundance of
portfolio maneuvers from The Street. March Quad-Witching Weeks have been quite
bullish in recent years. But the week after has been nearly the exact opposite,
DJIA down 22 of the last 37 years—and often down sharply.
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