Vital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up
The week ahead will contain the consumer price index on Wednesday. We are in the quiet period ahead of the March FOMC meeting so we won’t have any Fed speak.
Jerome Powell spoke at the University of Chicago on Friday. Here were his prepared remarks. On the economy in general:
The economy has been growing at a solid pace. GDP expanded at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year, extending a period of consistent growth that has been supported by resilient consumer spending. Recent indicators point to a possible moderation in consumer spending relative to the rapid growth rate over the second half of 2024. Further, recent surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook
On the labor market he said:
Many indicators show that the labor market is solid and broadly in balance. The jobs report released this morning showed employers added 151,000 jobs to payrolls in February and the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent last month. Smoothing over the month-to-month volatility, since September, employers have added a solid 191,000 jobs a month on average. The unemployment rate remains low and has held in a narrow range between 3.9 and 4.2 percent for the past year. The jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, and the quits rate has moved below pre-pandemic levels. Wages are growing faster than inflation, and at a more sustainable pace than earlier in the pandemic recovery. With wage growth moderating and labor supply and demand having moved into better balance, the labor market is not a significant source of inflationary pressure.
On inflation:
We pay close attention to a broad range of measures of inflation expectations, and some near-term measures have recently moved up. We see this in both market- and survey-based measures, and survey respondents, both consumers and businesses, are mentioning tariffs as a driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain stable and consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal.
We have had 3 Atlanta Fed GDP Now models showing negative growth for Q1. I am surprised that wasn’t mentioned.
Rocket is buying Redfin, in a move to reshape the homebuying industry. “Rocket and Redfin have a unified vision of a better way to buy and sell homes,” said Varun Krishna, CEO of Rocket Companies. “Together, we will improve the experience by connecting traditionally disparate steps of the search and financing process with leading technology that removes friction, reduces costs and increases value to American homebuyers.”
This move will help Rocket increase its mortgage production volume, while also offering the customer more ways to interact with the Rocket ecosystem
I am accepting ads for this blog if you would like to make an announcement, highlight something your company is offering or want more visibility. I am running a special for new clients as well. I offer white-label services which give you the ability to use this content for your own daily emails. The blog has thousands of subscribers / followers and an open rate around 50%. Please feel free to reach out to brent@thedailytearsheet.com if you would like to discuss this further.
