Daily Newsletter: Monday March 3, 2025

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Bonds Start Week Off With a Bang

After a weaker overnight session, bonds bounced back swiftly after this morning’s ISM Manufacturing data. The headline was roughly as-expected, but sharply weaker employment and “new orders” outweighed the highest “prices paid” component in more than 2 years. It took less than 15 minutes for moderate losses to flip to moderate gains. Very little happened after that apart from a slow and mostly steady trickle to even stronger levels. It bears repeating that the gains were centered on econ data as opposed to any other news.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Manufacturing

50.3 vs 50.5 f’cast, 50.9 prev

ISM Prices

62.4 vs 56.2 f’cast, 54.9 prev

ISM Employment

47.6 vs 50.1 f’cast, 50.3 prev

ISM New Orders

48.6 vs 54.6 f’cast, 55.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:09 AM Bouncing back to positive territory after ISM data. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.194

01:10 PM Stock losses spilling over to help bonds again. 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.174. MBS up 2 ticks (.06).