Geopolitical tensions around the world can generate grey zone warfare.
Grey zone warfare are spaces that exist between direct conflict and peace in international relations. Grey zone conflicts are characterised by using threat of force to create fear and intimidation. They cause disruptions. Examples of grey zone activities include undermining oil and gas supplies, money laundering, the use of espionage and sabotage.
The Houthis’ attacks
We have seen an example of a grey zone warfare in the maritime sector, when Houthis’ attacked ships transiting through the Red Sea. The insurers became unwilling to cover the transit through the Red Sea and therefore the ships have to look for alternative routes and face delays in shipping, which ultimately have to been passed on to customers, who pay higher freights.
Sabotage on underwater cables
Another example of acts of sabotage that we have seen recently have been cases of ships, engaging in grey-zone harassment and cutting communication cables to cause disruptions.
Undersea connectivity is a crucial global service, but it is also extremely vulnerable. Cutting an underwater internet cable can leave local residents without internet for several weeks.
In the same way as in the maritime sector, the aviation industry is also facing its own grey zone challenges.
Mass seizures of aircraft
Leasing aircraft is a key component of the global aviation industry. Not every airline owns all its aircraft.
Around February 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we saw the imposition of sanctions by the UK, the US and the EU against Russia.
This meant that the leasing of about 600 aircraft by the US and European lessors to Russian airlines had to be terminated.
In response to the sanctions, Putin issued a decree which prohibited the return of the aircraft to the foreign owners.
The politically motivated seizures of aircraft are another example of grey zone warfare.
The Russian airlines continue to operate the aircraft in breach of the termination of the lease agreements, and the Western aircraft lessors have been unable to repossess their aircraft.
There have been legal cases between the lessors and their insurers to recover for the loss of these aircraft.
There is a mega trial currently running in the UK. The amount involved is staggering. The initial estimate is USD12 billion.
Terrorist attacks
What other threats and harm have been directed against the aviation industry?
The risk of a terrorist attack remains a concern. Although, After the 9/11 attack, the security surrounding aircraft is increased dramatically. The ability of terrorists to take action against cargo or passenger aircraft, is diminished because of the widespread security arrangements.
Pilots have been trained, and they know how to navigate manually in case of GPS jamming and spoofing.
The industry share information, particularly around areas of conflict, Middle East or around Ukraine, to minimise the risk of incidents.
Overflight bans
Western airlines are not allowed to fly through Russian airspace anymore. Russia revoked that right around the beginning of the Ukraine war.
So Western airlines have to fly around, which severely impact flights between Europe and Asia, whereas airlines from other part of the world can fly anywhere they like and are not subject to the Russian ban.
Conclusion
Geopolitical tensions and Western sanctions cause the grey zone threats to intensify. The challenges to the aviation industry that we have seen are terrorist attacks, mass seizures of aircraft, overflight bans. The industry responds by increasing safety regulations. The risks trigger the industry to increase exponentially the standard of safety measures. On one hand it is certainly positive that the industry reacts and increases its effort to make aviation safer, but on the other hand this also represents a considerable cost to the industry, which may have to be passed down to customers.
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