Gold ETFs target record year on ASX as Silver ETFs flows hit all-time high

Australian investors are set to pour record inflows into gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) listed on the ASX in 2025, and silver ETF inflows have struck all-time highs.

Global X sets end-of-year gold price targets of US$4,000/ounce and silver US$45.

Investors have pumped $660.3 million in net inflows to physical gold ETFs listed on the ASX over the year to September 5; over half of that, or $369.1 million, has been invested in Global X’s suite of gold ETFs. “Given the strong momentum and constructive environment for gold, it is highly possible that we could see a record year for physical gold ETF inflows in Australia this year,” said Justin Lin, Investment Strategist at Global X.

“While the $660 million figure is not yet record-breaking, flows are on-pace to exceed the record year of 2020 where we saw $982 million in net inflows into physical gold ETFs.”

“This year is the strongest ever for silver at $192.7 million of net inflows YTD into ASX-listed ETFs, well ahead of closest full-year figures for 2020 and 2024 at $80 million and $67 million, respectively,” Lin said.

Global X expects gold and silver to keep climbing, attracting even more investors to ETFs, given expectations of lower interest rates in the US.  “The US Federal Reserve is turning its focus to the labour market away from inflation. That shift increases the likelihood of rate cuts, with markets now pricing in up to 100bps by year-end. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive compared with yielding assets,” Lin said. “Though gold is already up roughly 40% for the year, we expect it to head even higher. Our year-end gold price target is US$4000 per ounce.”

“Silver’s performance hinges on two drivers: industrial demand and its relative value to gold. With gold breaking out and rate cuts expected to buoy the economic outlook, silver has scope to outperform through the rest of the year.”

“The key variable is whether global growth stabilises – silver outpaces gold in a falling rate environment only if industrial demand holds up. Either way, the backdrop remains highly supportive for both precious metals. We have a year-end silver price target of US$45,” Lin said.

According to Lin, over the past two years, most gold demand has come from new entrants such as Asian/Chinese ETFs investors along with sustained central bank accumulation.

“Western ETF participation, by contrast, has been low. Looking back over the past 20 years, global ETF inflows have typically risen when real yields and interest rates moved down. With rate cuts increasingly expected by September, there is now a strong catalyst for under-allocated Western investors to step in and start accumulating gold, potentially adding a new leg of demand to an already strong market,” Lin said.

“The US dollar remains under pressure as US President Trump ramps up his attacks on the US Fed’s independence. History shows that an independent central bank is more effective at keeping inflation under control, maximising employment and ultimately supporting a stronger local currency. A weaker USD tends to be positive for gold.”