iPhone 17 price hikes may be minimal despite U.S. tariffs

JP Morgan believes Apple will keep the pricing of the iPhone 17 range in line with the iPhone 16, but with the probable exception of the iPhone 17 Pro.

The constantly changing landscape of the U.S. tariff situation may cause concern for consumers expecting massive price rises for the 2025 iPhone range. If analysts at JP Morgan are right, there may be little to worry about.

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan talks at length about the iPhone 17 Air and the rest of the iPhone 17 collection due on September 9. While the note discusses expectations of features and specifications, it also talks about pricing.

Weeks ago in August, JP Morgan said investors were worried that tariffs could bump up global pricing for the iPhone. The increase was anticipated to be as high as 5% across the board, all to offset the impact of the tariffs on U.S. iPhone imports.

However, when taking on board aspects such as the semiconductor tariff exemption from early August, Apple will be largely shielded from tariffs.

The upshot is that JP Morgan doesn’t believe that the pricing of the iPhone lineup will be affected by tariffs directly. For the standard iPhone 17 and the iPhone 17 Pro Max, they could remain the same price.

There are exceptions, and one is the iPhone 17 Pro. With expectations that Apple will increase the base storage from 128GB to 256GB, Apple could raise the price of the base model to match.

In practice, that would be an increase from $999 for the current base iPhone 16 Pro with 128GB of storage to $1,099. This would be on par with the 256GB capacity model.

Pricing iPhone 17 Air

When it comes to the iPhone 17 Air, JP Morgan proposes that it could be in the same range as the iPhone 16 Plus — the model that the iPhone 17 Air will replace.

Based on supply chain feedback, the new model is anticipated to cost consumers about $899 to $949 for the base model. The $899 would equal the iPhone 16 Plus base model pricing, while $949 would be a $50 increase.

That said, the analysts propose that it could end up being released closer to $800.

The reasoning for the price change is due to an incentive where smartphones sold in China priced at under CNY 6,000 ($840) qualify for a 15% discount. This is a government subsidy, rather than a retailer or Apple-driven program.

By pricing the iPhone 17 Air at $800, or below the qualifying level for the subsidy, Apple could end up increasing the potential sales of the iPhone 17 Air in China.

It would also mean an expansion of Apple’s catalog in terms of what qualifies for the subsidy. Currently, the iPhone 16 qualifies, while the more expensive iPhone 16 Plus does not.