Almanac Trader — Bears have been running wild in September since…

Portfolio managers back after Labor Day have tended to clean house in September. Since 1950, September has been the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com madness. More recently, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 have been down seven of the last eleven Septembers and four of the last five. Average losses over the last eleven years range from –1.2% by DJIA to –2.4% from NASDAQ and Russell 2000.

In post-election years, September’s overall rank improves modestly in post-election years going back to 1953 (third or fourth worst month depending on index). Average losses are little changed. Although September 2001 does influence the average declines, the fact remains DJIA and S&P 500 have declined in 10 of the last 18 post-election year Septembers. Russell 2000 has the best post-election year record, up seven times in 11 post-election years.