Marvell’s 180% Profit Surge Is $149 Next?

Marvell’s trading at $75 right now, and analysts think it could go to $149. That’s a 98% upside, but no one’s talking about it.

And here’s what I am here to tell you: Marvell just posted 63% revenue and 180% profit growth on GAAP numbers. Not “adjusted.” Not “non-GAAP.”  No smoke or mirrors – just Raw, clean profit for the second consecutive quarter.

They’ve locked in deals with NVIDIA and Amazon, generating 76% of their revenue from data centre demand alone… and yet the stock’s still trading at a cheaper multiple than Broadcom, AMD, and NVIDIA.

But there’s a catch, and it’s big. Marvell’s clients today may turn into its biggest competitors tomorrow. 

Marvell’s Profile

Marvell is a semiconductor company that designs and develops high-performance chips and other related products for AI data centres, cloud computing enterprises, and more. The company operates through five segments: data centres for AI accelerators and cloud computing products, enterprise networking for Ethernet switches and edge computing, carrier infrastructure for 5G and wireless connectivity, automotive/industrial, and consumer. 

Now, I know that most people are familiar with big names like NVIDIA and AMD when it comes to AI semiconductors, but Marvell isn’t like them. 

Think of it this way: if a data centre were a body, NVIDIA and AMD would be the ones supplying the brain and other critical organs, while Marvell provides the nerves, arteries, and other connective tissues. 

And this, I think, is why some investors overlook Marvell and similar companies – they may not be as large or as frequently featured in the news as NVIDIA, but their roles are essential in the AI and cloud ecosystem nonetheless. 

Marvell’s Stock Price Review

Now, if you want to follow along as I go through the company’s stock price

This year has been a rollercoaster for Marvell’s stock price. After peaking at $127 last January, the stock went on a free fall, ending at $47.08 in April – that’s a 63% drop in four months. But the good news is the stock is up over 61% from that 52-week low. 

On a longer timeframe, Marvell is up 126% over the last 5 years, and 568% in the last decade. 

But let’s go back to its recent price boost to find out where that came from. And to do that, let’s check the company’s financials. 

Financials

Marvell reported its first-quarter results for the fiscal year 2026 back in May – and it was exactly what investors were waiting for. 

Revenue grew 63% year over year, reaching $1.9 billion, while diluted net income came in 180% higher at 20 cents per share.  

This may not sound like a big deal, but Q1 ‘26’s positive results mean the company has reported solid profitability for two consecutive quarters on a GAAP basis. 

Now, here’s a quick finance lesson for you guys. GAAP, or Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, means the numbers follow strict accounting rules – no removal of one-time or surprise charges, no adjustments, just raw numbers. Non-GAAP just means the values adjusted based on management’s judgment. I don’t like non-GAAP because, well, it’s like this.

Say you earned $2,000 this month. You’ve got your normal things you pay every month, like your electricity bill, food, mortgage and so on. If your expenses were $1500, then your net income is $500 – as long as it includes everything. That’s the idea behind GAAP. But what if your car broke down and it cost $1000 to fix? Well, suddenly your net income would be a loss of 500. Non-GAAP, however, could ignore the car repair, and still report $500 in income. They’re both accepted in reporting, but they need to be labelled, and having strong GAAP numbers is generally more impressive. 

And on the heels of Marvell’s excellent performance, analysts are expecting next quarter’s bottom line to improve significantly year over year. 

The company itself forecasts $2 billion in revenue for the next quarter. 

And we don’t even have to wait long to find out – Marvell will release its Q2 ‘26 financials on August 28. 

Analysts are so optimistic about the stock that they’ve issued Marvell a high target price of $149, representing a massive 98% potential upside. 

Tailwinds

So what are the factors that can drive Marvell’s growth further? 

AI and Data Centre Demand

Well, the most obvious answer is the growing demand for AI and data centres. Marvell’s data centre segment accounted for 76% of its Q1 revenue – and by the looks of things, it’s only going up, barring one potential caveat I’ll get into a bit later. 

The company is successfully targeting hyperscalers, sovereign data centres, and emerging markets with silicon solutions and high-speed networking tech custom-made for different workloads. And with more countries building their own AI infrastructure, Marvell’s position becomes even stronger. 

Strategic Partnerships

Another great thing about Marvell’s products is the customizability that comes with them, which makes them the perfect partner for other AI tech providers. Unlike off-the-shelf solutions, the company works with its clients to develop silicon solutions that are tailor-made for specific workloads. And let me tell you, it’s working well for them. 

Last year, Marvell expanded its collaboration with Amazon to provide a whole range of products from optical processors to Ethernet switching silicon solutions. 

The company is also working with NVIDIA on its NVLink Fusion platform, combining Marvell’s custom silicon and networking expertise with NVIDIA’s high-bandwidth chip-to-chip interconnect technology. This enables cloud providers and hyperscalers to use Marvell’s custom auxiliary processing units or XPUs with NVIDIA’s top-shelf GPUs. 

Cheap Valuation

Marvell’s other advantage is its relatively cheap valuation – and you have the massive price drop to thank for that. 

Currently, the stock is trading at a 35.7x forward price-to-earnings ratio. In comparison, Broadcom is trading at 53.51x, AMD at 56.41x, and NVIDIA at 44.33x. 

That makes Marvell look like a relative bargain, especially considering it’s playing in the same AI-driven growth space. This works for both value and growth investors: cheap valuations, high potential upside, and exposure to AI. That’s a tough combination to beat, and I have to say, those are pretty compelling reasons to buy Marvell right now.

Economic Uncertainties

One of the biggest concerns I have for Marvell’s prospects is the ongoing US-China trade war, especially with potential trade restrictions down the line. 

We’ve seen this with the US kneecapping the likes of NVIDIA and AMD by tightening export controls on high-performance GPUs to China. If you recall, NVIDIA took a $2.5 billion revenue hit, while AMD lost out on $800 million. 

Now, there have been compromises made – mostly by just allowing watered-down versions of NVDA’s most powerful chips for Chinese export – but, at the end of the day, the uncertainty remains, and that has led to significant volatility in the tech sector. 

Should the US extend restrictions to custom silicon or networking products, Marvell’s limited access to the Chinese market could have a massive impact on its profitability and growth prospects. 

In-House Chip Development

Another potential issue here is the future competition. And by competition, I mean Marvell’s current clients. 

The company is working with big names like Amazon, Meta, Broadcom through VMware, previously with Google, and more. These companies are growing alongside the AI boom; they’re not short on resources, and with the right incentive, they could vertically integrate and develop their custom silicon. 

This is a big problem for third-party solution providers like Marvell. And the even bigger problem is, we’re already seeing it happen. 

Amazon already has two in-house custom chips: Graviton and Trainium. Google has Ironwood, its first Cloud Tensor Processing Unit. And now even Meta is working on its custom inference chips. With these developments, all three companies are aiming to reduce reliance on third-party vendors. 

If this trend continues across the sector, it could chip away – pun fully intended – at Marvell’s future market share. It would have to match price points with in-house development – never an easy feat – while maintaining quality products and services to keep its clients. That likely means tighter competition and narrowing margins. Now that’s an uphill battle if I’ve ever seen one. 

Verdict

Marvell currently has a consensus strong buy rating from 33 analysts with a $149 high target price. I agree to some extent, but I’m a bit more cautious than some. So I’m more inclined to rate it a moderate buy with a high target price of around $100 or about 46.5x its projected non-GAAP EPS for its fiscal year 2026. 

Admittedly, that’s a bit stretched, but this accounts for the strength of the ongoing AI demand along with the risks and uncertainties it’s facing.