Putin, Trump, and the Redrawing of the Geopolitical Map – Alessandro Rocco Pietrocola

Ukraine at the Forefront—and on the Backburner

The summit’s focus is the war in Ukraine, with Trump suggesting that a peace deal may involve “some swapping of territory” and hinting at possible land concessions.

However, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy promptly rejected territorial cessions, calling them “dead decisions,” and insisted negotiations must include Ukraine.

European leaders, too, warned that Ukraine’s participation is non-negotiable—the message from Brussels and EU capitals is that peace without Kyiv is illegitimate.

Broader Zones of Influence & Diffused Power

The Alaska summit extends its ripple through multiple geopolitical theaters:

• Syria and Israel: Though not central to the agenda, Trump’s broader diplomatic posture—as seen in his mediation in the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict—indicates a willingness to recalibrate balances in the Middle East.
• India–Pakistan and China–India: India watches closely, hopeful that reduced tensions between Washington and Moscow will ease moves against sanctions and support economic ties.

The evolving U.S.–Russia détente could shift India’s strategic calculus, especially amid intensifying China–India border tensions, as Beijing and New Delhi already jostle on multiple fronts.

• China–Russia alignment: While not directly referenced in the summit, the deepening Sino–Russian cooperation forms a backdrop. The U.S./Russia thaw could potentially weaken India’s strategic isolation—or prompt further collaboration between Beijing and Moscow.

Europe’s Struggles in a Fragmented World

Europe emerges as an loser—in this scenario due to disunity and indecisiveness. The EU’s repeated affirmation that Ukraine must be included in peace talks highlights its concern over being sidelined.

But the continent’s fractured political landscape makes it less able to shape outcomes. Europe’s inability to present a united front risks eroding its diplomatic leverage.

Multipolar Reality: No Superpower Any More?

This summit underscores a fundamental truth: the world is multipolar, not unipolar. The U.S., no longer the uncontested global pace-setter, must negotiate space with regional powers. The Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska symbolizes how strategic initiatives may proceed with minimal European input, underscoring a shift from Western-led order to a transactional, leader-defined diplomacy.

Trump’s Role: Catalyst or Chaos?

Donald Trump’s unique contribution is twofold:

1. Operational Shift: Trump has re-engaged with Russia at a high level, reversing policies of isolation and increasing direct negotiations.
2. Strategic Disruption: By suggesting land swaps and advancing bilateral talks, Trump has disrupted the traditional framework where Europe and Ukraine are central to peace processes. His approach challenges the established post-Cold War norm of values-based engagement.

In summary, the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska is a defining moment in a waning era of Western unanimity. It illustrates a multipolar world where power flows in multiple directions, not from a single global leader. The battlegrounds of influence now span Ukraine, the Middle East, South Asia, and Asia-Pacific fault lines.

Europe’s fractured response, combined with the reorientation of U.S.–Russia relations, signals a new era—one where bold leadership, like Trump’s, can reconfigure global alignments, for better or worse.