Daily Newsletter: Thursday August 7, 2025

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Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction

The relevant morning econ data was limited to Jobless Claims. While the weekly and continuing numbers were both higher than expected, it wasn’t a big enough miss to spark any sort of decisive rally in bonds. MBS lost ground heading into the PM hours and lost some more ground after a poorly received 30yr bond auction. But whereas the auction could have been used as a front for additional selling, bonds generally did a decent job of holding their ground in the last few hours of the day. Friday’s calendar is empty. This doesn’t mean we won’t see any volatility–simply that it could not be driven by scheduled events.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

226k vs 221k f’cast, 219k prev

Continuing Claims

1974k vs 1950k f’cast, 1936k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:31 AM ho-hum Jobless Claims. No reaction. 10yr up 0.3bps at 4.231 MBS up 1 tick (.03)

11:55 AM Still flat. MBS unchanged and 10yr unchanged at 4.227

01:06 PM weaker after 30yr auction. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.245

02:55 PM avoiding sharper losses. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.243