#AI horizons 25-07 – Superintelligence gold rush

Executive Summary

The global AI industry has abandoned incremental progress for a bold new target: artificial superintelligence by 2027. Microsoft just claimed it’s on the path to “medical superintelligence.” Meta launched “Meta Superintelligence Labs” with Zuck’s goal of “personal superintelligence for everyone.” Sam Altman says we’re already in a “gentle singularity”, which is basically a reference to superintelligence. Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei predicts a “country of geniuses in a data center” by 2026-2027. This transition signals a fundamental shift from artificial general intelligence (AGI) as an aspirational goal to superintelligence as the next practical milestone. The implications extend far beyond technology companies: entire industries face restructuring, workforce transformation accelerates, and global economic power balances shift. Almost 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI. Within the next decade, organizations across all sectors must prepare for an economic transformation comparable to the Industrial Revolution, where superintelligent systems reshape production, consumption, and human work itself.

Key Points

The New Competitive Landscape

The Technology Race Intensifies

The superintelligence race represents a qualitative shift from previous technology competitions. Vinod Khosla, an extremely prescient and legendary tech investor, offered this vision: 2025-2030: The AI Intern Era. Those superintelligent systems become your coworkers. Every professional gets AI assistants smarter than Stanford grads. AI handles 80% of work in 80% of all jobs. This timeline compression from decades to years reflects both technological acceleration and competitive urgency.

By 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks. The implications cascade through every industry vertical. Pharmaceutical and medtech companies will be in the forefront of using AI to revolutionize their value chains, especially for drug and product development. Healthcare systems, financial services, and manufacturing face complete operational restructuring within this decade.

Talent as Strategic Asset

The current talent war signals superintelligence’s strategic importance. OpenAI Chief Research Officer Mark Chen sent an urgent internal memo that said, “I feel a visceral feeling right now, as if someone has broken into our home and stolen something.” This emotional response reflects the zero-sum nature of human expertise in advancing AI capabilities.

AI is making workers more valuable, with wages rising twice as quickly in those industries most exposed to AI compared to those least exposed. Organizations must rapidly upskill their workforce or risk competitive obsolescence. 99% of developers said they are exploring or developing AI agents. This universal engagement demonstrates superintelligence’s inevitability rather than possibility.

Global Economic Restructuring

The Productivity Revolution

Superintelligence drives economic transformation through multiple channels. AI’s adoption might expect a boost to annual productivity growth in countries which successfully and fully deploy AI of 1.5% for a period of a decade or two. However, this represents conservative estimates based on historical precedent rather than superintelligence’s exponential capabilities.

In 2030, every new dollar spent on business-related AI solutions and services will generate $4.60 into the global economy, in terms of indirect and induced effects. This multiplier effect demonstrates how superintelligence creates positive-sum economics rather than traditional zero-sum competition. Industries experience simultaneous disruption and enhancement as AI agents will start to reshape demand for software platforms, as companies use them to fill the gaps of existing systems, such as ERPs.

Labor Market Transformation

The workforce transition operates through parallel channels of displacement and creation. Annual redundancies peak at 274,000 in the mid-2030s, which adds materially to unemployment during the 2030s. However, this temporary disruption precedes fundamental economic restructuring. By 2025, AI will have displaced 75 million jobs globally, but will have created 133 million new jobs.

Wages are rising for AI-powered workers even in the most highly automatable roles, suggesting that concerns that AI is devaluing automatable roles may prove unfounded. Superintelligence creates complementary rather than substitutional relationships with human capabilities in many domains.

Geopolitical Implications for Global Markets

The US-China-EU Triangle

Superintelligence development occurs within intensifying geopolitical competition. China operates more as a state-capitalist society, its regulatory model reflects its focus on top-down control and national power. China’s Global AI Governance Initiative has also opposed the market dominance of American big-tech companies by stating that they “oppose creating barriers and disrupting the global AI supply chain through technological monopolies and unilateral coercive measures.”

The European Union faces particular strategic pressure. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical and high-tech competition as well as a fraying transatlantic partnership, the EU must perform a tricky balancing act between competing priorities, with wide-ranging implications for the union’s global norm-setting role and its pursuit of strategic autonomy. Europe’s reliance on external providers for essential AI components, such as advanced semiconductors and cloud computing resources, exposes the bloc to strategic dependencies and potential exploitation by rival powers, notably China and the United States.

Regulatory Divergence and Convergence

Different governance approaches create complex international dynamics. China’s AI strategy –which seeks all developments to align with state objectives while maintaining strict control over information— could further entrench geostrategic splits as it is exported to the Global South. Meanwhile, the EU’s stricter AI regulation may inadvertently stifle innovation, deter investment, and weaken Europe’s position in the global AI and technology race.

Eight Track 1.5 or 2 dialogues on AI – apart from governmental dialogues like the joint statement between China and France and the first China-US bilateral meeting – have taken place between China and Western countries. These engagements suggest potential cooperation frameworks despite competitive tensions.

Business Implications

The superintelligence transition creates both immediate opportunities and existential risks for organizations. Fortune 500 companies die faster than ever. Someone builds a billion-dollar company with 10 employees. This prediction reflects superintelligence’s ability to compress traditional business scaling requirements.

Over the next three years, 92 percent of companies plan to increase their AI investments. But while nearly all companies are investing in AI, only 1 percent of leaders call their companies “mature” on the deployment spectrum. This maturity gap represents competitive vulnerability as superintelligent systems become available.

Organizations must prepare for radical operational restructuring. AI is enhancing existing jobs by improving accuracy and precision in many tasks, such as quality control and data analysis. However, industrial products companies with higher quality data and more standard processes will use AI to improve efficiency and insights, accelerate R&D and slash go-to-market time. Companies without data infrastructure and process standardization face competitive extinction.

The investment requirements prove substantial but necessary. AI is most likely to deliver a big boost to productivity if several factors come together, including a rise in investment, reskilling of the workforce, and a balanced regulatory regime. Organizations must simultaneously invest in technology, human capital, and regulatory compliance to capture superintelligence benefits.

Why It Matters

The Great Transformation Timeline

Superintelligence represents humanity’s next evolutionary step rather than incremental technological advancement. Khosla’s 80% sure the real show ends with humanity never needing to work again. This prospect demands fundamental reconsideration of economic systems, social structures, and human purpose.

The transformation timeline accelerates beyond historical precedent. The 2030s: Corporate Extinction Event. The superintelligent “interns” surpass their human bosses. 2040+: Work Becomes Optional. You work because you want to, not because you need rent money. Organizations and societies have less than a decade to prepare for post-scarcity economics.

Navigating Uncertainty with Strategic Preparation

The superintelligence transition’s exact trajectory remains uncertain, but its direction proves clear. While AI’s potential benefits are large, a “big bang” of productivity gains seems unlikely; it would be more realistic to expect any boost to come through gradually, as in the past. This graduated transition provides preparation time for adaptive organizations.

Leaders must balance superintelligence’s transformative potential with implementation realities. The long-term potential of AI is great, but the short-term returns are unclear. Strategic approaches require simultaneous investment in current capabilities and future positioning.

Social and Democratic Implications

Superintelligence’s social consequences extend beyond economic transformation. His biggest fear? Not rogue AI. It’s China using “good AI” (free healthcare, education) to export its politics globally. This concern highlights superintelligence’s potential for reshaping global governance models through technological capability rather than military force.

The democratic implications prove profound. The EU faces mounting tensions between maintaining its regulatory leadership and remaining competitive in the superintelligence race. Societies must develop governance frameworks that maintain democratic accountability while enabling superintelligence benefits.

Ultimately, the superintelligence transition represents humanity’s next chapter rather than a technological footnote. Success requires unprecedented coordination between business leaders, policymakers, and civil society to ensure superintelligence serves human flourishing rather than replacing it. The window for strategic preparation remains open, but it closes rapidly as 2027 approaches and the first superintelligent systems come online.