Trade Deficit, ISM Services, NY Fed Household Debt and Credit

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2025 08:12:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Lowest Mortgage Rates Since Early October

Friday’s reaction was so big that the average mortgage lender didn’t fully adjust their rate offerings to match the market movement. This is typical of very large swings in bonds. It also meant that we merely needed today’s bond market levels to hold steady in order for rates to continue lower and that’s exactly what happened.

In fact, bonds ultimately improved just a hair, but even before that, mortgage lenders were out with their lowest rates since early October.
[30 year fixed 6.57%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $67.6 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $71.5 Billion the previous month.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for July.   The consensus is for a reading of 51.5, up from 50.8.

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit