Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for August 4, 2025

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

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Okay, hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI market outlook for the week of August the 4th, 2025.

Now, to get started this week, we’re going to change things up a little bit for our forex trading here, or in the currency markets in general, which have a high correlation to equities, commodities — all of these things.

Wisdom Tree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund ($USDU)

We’re going to use the WisdomTree US Dollar Bull Fund, the USDU, to really look at the dollar over a broader base of trading activity — FX volumes, again, global trade, not just certain trades.

So looking at this right now, we have seen a recovery. Now, since the beginning of 2025, the dollar has been unable to hold above its quarterly opening in every single quarter except for the U.S. fiscal fourth quarter, which is in play right now.

Now, we were holding above that. The dollar’s been doing quite well in the month of June, but now we’re hit with data — the unemployment data out of the U.S. — it missed on Friday. That’s not a big deal, but the revisions from June are a big deal.

I believe this is going to fuel volatility next week on speculation now from a Fed. Now, if you look at the media and how this has spun just last week — the week before — they’re saying no cuts in September. Now, no cuts this year. Well, that has changed very quickly with those payroll revisions.

Now they’re saying potentially a 50 basis point cut in September. So, there will be a lot of volatility, but in my respectful opinion, August is a very slow month. And in September, there is real demand for U.S. dollars — regardless of interest rate hikes and cuts, tariffs, all of this stuff, guys.

Current fiat currencies are not the same as stocks, options, or commodities. No — nobody has to buy any of those. But with a fiat currency, at least for now, they do.

So, obviously, I think that the dollar will struggle a little bit. But let’s bring this in closer now and identify where real support lies. The TCROSSlong 26.23 — this is a very well-balanced ETF, I might add, and it may even give us better insight into global trade and into the global currency markets.

But for now, we’re above our TCROSS long. The quarterly opening on this is 25.77. As long as we hold above these two levels — mainly the quarterly opening — then we still have dollar buyers.

Now, the neural index is down, but our MA diff cross is a little bit sideways.
I agree, and I believe that the dollar will come under selling pressure this week — like it always does the week after the non-farm payroll — regardless of whether that number is good or bad.

So now, we have to see how this one plays out, but expect a lot of choppiness to begin the week.

Gold/U.S. Dollar

Now, gold was tanking prior to that payroll number, and it’s recovered off of — again, looking at this quarterly opening price on gold — it surprisingly has remained firm.

So for now, I believe that gold is still okay, and a new buy signal — a fresh buy signal — is actually just forming. But make no mistake, guys: gold has been very bullish on the year — 2607. Nothing has changed.

But if gold is going to struggle, it will be in September and early October, and it always goes higher in November and December regardless of all these other things that are going on.

So again, for now, the speculation on a 50 — potentially a 50 — basis point cut in September. But guys, be very careful which media outlet — which media — you listen to, because they’re all putting a spin on it here, right?

But the fact of the matter is the payroll numbers were not good. And the revisions were really bad — particularly June — going from 147,000 all the way down to 14,000.

So now the market is thinking recession. The market is thinking rate cuts — none of which supports the dollar. But again, be very cautious when we start moving forward into mid-August.

SPDR SPY ETF ($SPY)

Now the SPYs here, or the equity markets, also clearly responding to that. But again, we are starting a new monthly opening price. We have a new month — excuse me — we have a new monthly opening price.

The quarterly opening remains the same. The quarterly opening: 616. The monthly now has moved up to 626.

So we want to make sure we get above that very quickly. But when we look at a structural bias of this — with the yearly at 589, then we have our quarterly at 616 and the monthly at 626 — that’s a very nice stacking of these price points.

And price points in our trading and investing are critical, because indicators, opinions — that’s all one thing, guys. But price structure tells us — confirms to us — okay, well, if I’m above the quarterly and yearly opening, so far, so good.

But the month is not looking good in August right now. So that’s a bit of a problem area. But again, if we can hold above that 616 mark, then we’re still doing pretty good on the quarter.

If the equities are going to struggle again, it will be August and September — based around that dollar strength.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Now, with Bitcoin, Bitcoin also pulling back — because again, that unemployment number — we could say, okay, well, that’s going to make for easy dollar shorts, but I’m not convinced at all that that’s the case here.

It’s the other markets that are taking the hit from that payroll number: equities, numerous different commodities. So gold is liking it, but the equities do not like it one bit.

So right now, this is pointing to a bearish week on the equity side. Our predicted differences are down. The neural index is down. Momentum is building on the predicted RSI.

But I would respectfully submit that that momentum was building prior to that payroll number. And you can see it, as the predicted RSI on Bitcoin broke down on Wednesday.

Friday was just the icing on the cake to push this lower. But once again — in my respectful opinion only, following pattern recognition programs — Bitcoin usually does very, very well mid-September through the end of October.

So, it would be perfectly normal for a retracement back into the quarterly area around 107,598. And under the current circumstances, I can’t rule out 93,804 — the yearly opening price.

But either way, we would be buyers between the quarterly and the yearly opening. I believe that that will contain Bitcoin, and it will move up toward the latter part of August — or, excuse me — September. That is what we’re looking for here.

Currently, now, oil contracts coming into this past week did actually quite well — right from the beginning on Monday.

We can see — going back to Monday’s high and low bar — there, we had a break on Tuesday, pushing higher. But once again, when we look at that yearly opening price at 76 — the yearly opening price at 76.84 — that was the key driver there pushing this up.

United States Oil ($USO)

So again, now oil buyers are going to have to think twice about this after that payroll number. And you can see the indicators were reacting to that payroll number after the update Friday night.

So again, our T-Cross Long: 77.07 — but the indicators right now are bearish. Usually in a recession, oil doesn’t do that great. Some years, it’s done okay, but once again, most technical analysts will say, “Well, no, it was bullish,” but we have a lower high.

We could say that. So, if we want to do that, then we can put a trendline very easily across here and connect it to the most recent price. That would bring that trendline right in around the 80.55 area, guys.

So, I think you have a heck of a short next week if we can push a little bit higher up — or if we have a breakdown below the TROS Long at 77.07, you could have a short there too.

But I think longs are unlikely to be the play for next week.

Now, when I look at the German equity markets — or the European equity markets — once again here, guys, a very high correlation to the Euro/US currency.

I’m actually surprised to some degree that this — so again, if we’re breaking down below here, that would signal a much deeper move lower on the DAX, on the global equities in general.

DAX

But now the DAX is starting to have a very, very high correlation to the SPYs. When we do a comparative analysis here, I believe it’s the Euro that is actually putting the DAX under additional pressure because of the positive correlation there.

But again, the Euro could very well rebound next week on that weaker payroll number and the potential for a 50 basis point cut from the Fed — but I’m not convinced of any of that.

There’s plenty more data to come in before the September Fed. So for now, the DAX remains under pressure.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

Now again, when we look at the VIX, the VIX — again now starting to challenge that calendar yearly opening price — 44.21.

We can see it starting to push back up a bit here, warning of volatility. Now, when the predicted RSI breaks the 60 level and our predicted differences are rising with the neural index, and we have a verified support low that’s coming in at or about the 39.44 area — that is a problem here, guys.

Right? So we can see that price is rising off the verified zone, but it’s starting to push up as the market tries to figure out: are we going into a recession? Are we already in one? What is the Fed going to do?

All of these things come into play with the short-term VIX futures. So again, the VIX is looking bullish going into next week.

Now, rounding out the presentation here this morning, I’m going to limit our forex pairs to just four — the four or five that really matter going into trading for next week.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

And at the top of that list, it will always be the Euro/US pair. Now, the Euro rebounding on Friday. And we have a new monthly opening price.

This is the level you want to watch, guys: 1.1415. We always use price points in combination with the VP indicators for confirmation and for directional bias.

So there’s a slight upward bias for the Euro while above 1.1415. But all of these gains were made off the back of that payroll number. And that isn’t a good enough reason to just buy the Euro for that.

So again, if we can hold — and I will concede — the Euro is bullish on the year: 1.0357, but we need to push through the TROS Long at 1.1615.

So if we’re in a risk-off environment, that doesn’t help the Euro. That actually helps the dollar — despite everything the Fed is doing, not doing, payroll numbers, revisions of payroll numbers.

But dollar demand, guys — real demand — comes in September.

So, is the market simply looking for a better area to short this thing?
Potentially, yes. The ECB — the interest rate differential — still favors the dollar on the carry trade.

If you’re holding a long Euro/US, you’re paying interest to hold that. But if you’re short Euro/US, you’re getting paid on the swap side — times three on Wednesday.

So, still a slight bias there for shorts. But if we can hold above the monthly opening price, then things will look good here.

But your biggest problem zone here remains — and is — the quarterly opening: 1.1787.

So, to simplify this trading range down for everybody — your high of the range is 1.1787. We sell as close to that area as we can.
The bottom end of this particular range now is the monthly opening at 1.1450.

And right in between both of those, guys, is the TROS Long coming in at 1.1615.

Be very careful Monday trading. The real price will show itself on Tuesday.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the British pound again — having a very difficult week — but it recovered off that payroll number.
But as you can see, it’s a very shallow bounce.

Now, it is positive on the year: 1.2513.
But the T-Cross Long is coming in at 1.3419. That is your key area.

The quarterly opening on cable comes in at 1.3733 — and the monthly opening price at 1.3207.

That is the current range we’re going to be dealing with. I believe we potentially can move toward the top of that range.

But always remember, the Bank of England is also looking at cuts. So you really do have a standoff here between these central banks — with the Fed being the biggest problem, refusing to cut.

So either way, they’re all cutting. So how much weight do we want to put on these interest rates if the whole lot of them are going to be cutting, right?

So that leads us to real-world demand. And that demand — again, I will keep reiterating this point — in most years, that’s when I see the dollar at its strongest: in September, particularly toward the end of September.

So again, we’ll watch this — but it still remains bearish for now.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

Now the Dollar/Yen is definitely one of the ones we want to look at in this grouping.

The Dollar/Yen had a great week, and then it was hammered lower on that payroll number. Because again, guys, this is all about the carry trade.

When you’re trading anything with the Yen — the low, zero, or slightly above-zero interest rates on the Japan side, and the high-yielding U.S. dollar, the Aussie dollar, even the Euro — but the Yen is the lowest interest rate currency.

And if anybody is still in the carry trade, they’re rethinking that now and saying:
“Oh, wait a minute, I think the interest rates are going to change, and I’m not going to get my swap payments if the Fed starts cutting a half a basis point.”

So they’re scared — and they jump out of the trade. Now, they may jump right back in.

The predicted RSI is at 41.1, so we’re just shy of having momentum to the downside on this.

So our new monthly opening: 150.77.
Our quarterly opening: 144.04.

That is the predominant range you’re going to be dealing with.

Now I anticipate — if we can break through the TCROSS Long at 147.64 — we will be targeting 144, potentially as early as next week. So be very, very mindful of that.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the other one that we want to look at here too is the Aussie/US pair.

Now, despite everything that’s happening here, we can see — visually — we see three bars lining up at 0.6429, and we rebounded off of that based on the payroll.

But in my respectful opinion only, we stalled prior to that happening, right?
So, when I look at it from this perspective, I could say, “Well, wait a minute here… even though you got that, nobody was willing — basically we had no sellers down here.”

And the question is: do we now?

So for next week, a break of 0.6429 will start the next leg down on the Aussie pair. But if this holds, we’re looking for a break of the TROS Long at 0.6515, and then a retracement back to the quarterly opening at 0.6581.

But it would take a strong equity market for that to happen. It would take a trade deal between China and the U.S.

And that’s what I would bank on — that if that is resolved, then a lot of other things will be resolved with it, right?

And even though I want to stay just to the four currencies this week because of everything that’s going on — and I believe the WisdomTree Dollar Bull Fund covers the forex side — the US/Canadian pair will also be an interesting one this coming week.

No trade deal. I don’t believe Trump wants a trade deal with Canada. And the most recent comments from the Canadian Prime Minister didn’t help that situation any at all.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

So where does that leave the Canadian dollar?

Well, where it leaves the Canadian dollar is dependent on equities going higher and oil going higher.

If that doesn’t happen, the Canadian dollar will easily break through the 1.3855 area — and I suspect that’s going to happen either way early in the week next week.

Unless there’s a trade deal, then the Canadian dollar, at least briefly, would strengthen. But that would likely be a short-term play.

With that dollar strength coming, lower equity markets, lower oil prices — those are all big negatives for the Canadian dollar.

Plus, no trade deal.

So, I don’t think — if we’re looking at selling or buying Canadian dollars — then we’re going to structurally need the entire market pretty much to change, with stocks going back up, oil going back up, the U.S. dollar weakening.

And at least for next week, guys, that doesn’t appear to be on the table — as there is a standoff now between Carney and Trump as to who is going to blink first.

And I don’t believe it will be President Trump.

So that could drag this on. Maybe he’ll announce an extension on the trade negotiations — that would help the Canadian dollar.

But again, we need to be very, very cautious at the start of the week — on Monday and Tuesday — until price on all markets settles.

But again, with this volatility will come opportunity.

So with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI market outlook for the week of August the 4th, 2025.

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