by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2025 07:43:00 PM
Today’s movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday’s levels but is technically just a hair higher. That fact is offset by the counterpoint that most of the past two months saw higher rates.
The future is far more interesting than the present–specifically, the immediate future. Tomorrow morning brings the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the most important economic reports as far as interest rates are concerned and tomorrow’s example is especially notable.
This CPI marks the first major opportunity for the official data to show (or not show) a meaningful impact on inflation from tariffs.[30 year fixed 6.83%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.6% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 2.9% YoY.
• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -10.1, up from -16.0.
