Calculated Risk: Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving on Down

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 07:49:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP.

From Goldman:

Following this morning’s data, we have lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to +3.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.7%. [July 3rd estimate]
emphasis added

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.6 percent on July 3, up from 2.5 percent on July 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.5 percent and -11.9 percent, respectively, to 1.6 percent and -11.7 percent, while the nowcast of second-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 2.0 percent to 2.3 percent. [July 3rd estimate]