Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a small cap Tech stock that provides services to the energy business. The energy business is cyclical and this stock seems also to be cyclical. I knew what I was getting into when I bought this stock, so I have kept it. So, this is not a stock for everyone’s portfolio. The stock price is off its latest high, so it might be a good time to buy. The stock price is probably reasonable and maybe cheap.
I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). I bought this company in 2008 because it is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization of around $115 million. Insiders are currently buying this stock. It has great growth and it is information technology, a favourite sector of mine. When I sold some of my TD Bank stock in June 2009, I bought some more. Because the stock grew rapidly and because it is a tech stock, I sold some shares in 2011 to lock in profit. It provides services to the energy industry.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the CEO increased his shares by 124% and the CEO by 50%. One of the directors increased his shares by 323%. There was selling and it seemed to be by people who recently left the company.
I have had this stock since 2008 and I have made a total return of 19.90% per year with 10.03% from capital gains and 9.87% from dividends. Note that the financial year ends March 31 each year and I have been reviewing the financial year ending in March 31, 2026.
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,002.96 you would have bought 84 shares at $11.94 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $252 in dividends. The stock would be worth $894.60. Your total return would have been $1,146.60. This would be a total return of 1.54% per year with a 1.14% from capital loss and 2.67% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.94 | $1,002.96 | 84 | 10 | $252.00 | $894.60 | $1,146.60 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with no dividend growth currently. The dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.80%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 3.37%, 3.91%, and 3.63%. Dividends were decreased in 2021 and have been flat since. Since DPRs are rather high, I do not see any dividend increases in the near future.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high and would be better lower. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 74% with 5 year coverage at 78%. The DPR for 2024 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is fine at 53% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow provided by the company (FCF) is too high at 61% with 5 year coverage at 64%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is too high at 51% with 5 year coverage at 55%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is fine at 53% with 5 year coverage at 57%.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 74.07% | 78.13% |
| FFO | 52.63% | 56.95% |
| FCF C. | 60.61% | 64.18% |
| CFPS | 51.22% | 55.58% |
| FCF | 53.38% | 57.46% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.01 and currently at 0.01. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.32 and 1.32 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.54 and currently at 1.58. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.72 and 1.72 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.38 and 1.38 and currently at 2.38 and 1.38.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Intang/GW | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Liquidity | 1.32 | 1.32 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.54 | 1.58 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.72 | 1.72 |
| Leverage | 2.38 | 2.38 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.38 | 1.38 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | -12.94% | 7.52% | 5.32% | 2.20% |
| 2014 | 10 | -6.70% | 1.54% | -1.14% | 2.67% |
| 2009 | 15 | 0.70% | 13.16% | 7.19% | 5.97% |
| 2004 | 20 | 12.20% | 30.41% | 15.76% | 14.64% |
| 1999 | 25 | 48.99% | 25.03% | 23.96% | |
| 1996 | 27 | 18.39% | 12.69% | 5.69% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.45, 24.90 and 31.58. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 20.34, 26.60 and 33.03. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.77, 20.99 and 26.74. The current P/E Ratio is 26.64 based on a stock price of $7.14 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $0.27. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I also have data on Free Cash Flow per Share (FCF) from the company. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Free Cash Flow per Share Ratios are 14.89, 19.48 and 24.07. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 16.91, 22.92 and 28.92. The current P/FCF Ratio is 19.63 based on FCF per Share estimate for 2026 of 0.36 and a stock price of $7.14. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I also have data on Funds from Operations (FFO) from the company. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 13.41, 18.14 and 22.42. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 15.62, 20.83 and 25.94. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.41, 18.55 and 24.17. The current P/FFO Ratio is 18.79 based on FFO per Share for the last 12 months of 0.38 and a stock price of $7.14. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $2.52. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.77, 3.67 and 4.51. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.83 based on a stock price of $7.14. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. Note that these ratios are rather high. Generally speaking, the Price/Graham Price ratio should be under 1.20. However, this is a tech company and tech companies tend to have high ratios.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 11.44. The current P/B Ratio is 6.76 based on a stock price of $7.14, Book Value of $85.9M and Book Value per Share of $7.18. The current ratio is 41% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Here the ratios are exceeding high because a normal good ratio is 1.50. This does point to this stock as being over price for a long time.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 22.27. The current P/CF Ratio is 17.00 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $0.42, Cash Flow of $34.2M and a stock price of $7.14. The current P/CF Ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.63%. The current dividend yield is 2.80% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $7.14. The current dividend yield is 23% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Problem is that this test works best on dividend growth stocks and this is not a dividend growth stock. However, a dividend cut and flat dividends are not a good story to tell about a stock.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.91%. The current dividend yield is 2.80% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $7.14. The current dividend yield is 28% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Problem is that this test works best on dividend growth stocks and this is not a dividend growth stock. However, a dividend cut and flat dividends are not a good story to tell about a stock.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.39. the current P/S Ratio is 4.53 based on a stock price of $7.14, Revenue estimate for 2026 of $128.2M and Revenue per Share of $1.58. The current ratio is 39% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable to cheap. The dividend yield tests on this case are not much use because of dividend cuts and flat dividends over the past 6 years. The P/S Ratio testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap. The rest of the testing ranges from cheap to reasonable.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $9.00 with a high of $10.00 and low of $8.00. The consensus stock price of $9.00 implies a total return of 28.85% with 26.05% from capital gains and 2.80% from dividends based on a current stock price of $7.14.
This stock on Stock Chase is not well covered. Analysts have said the stock was a buy since 2023. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says the company is unperforming due to massive headwinds. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says the stock trades at a discount to price consensus. The company put out a press release via Global Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2025.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says that this stock is currently fairly valued. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says that shareholders have reason for hope with this stock. Simply Wall Street has two warnings of significant insider selling over the past 3 months; and unstable dividend track record. See my comments above about insider selling and buying.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd is a software and consulting technology company engaged in developing and licensing reservoir simulation and seismic interpretation software. The company also provides professional services consisting of highly specialized support, consulting, training, and contract research activities. The firm has operations in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific regions. Its web site is here Computer Modelling Group Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX-PKI, OTC-PKIUF) … learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX-PKI, OTC-PKIUF) … learn more on Monday, June 30, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Shopping at the Bay…. learn more on Tuesday, July 1, 2025 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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