by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2025 10:00:00 AM
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 623 thousand.
The previous three months were revised down.
Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 13.7 percent below the April 2025 rate of 722,000, and is 6.3 percent below the May 2024 rate of 665,000.
emphasis added
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.
This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
“The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May 2025 was 507,000. This is 1.4 percent above the April 2025 estimate of 500,000, and is 8.1 percent above the May 2024 estimate of 469,000.
This represents a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is 18.1 percent above the April 2025 estimate of 8.3 months, and is 15.3 percent above the May 2024 estimate of 8.5 months. “
Sales were well below expectations of 710 thousand SAAR and sales for the three previous months were revised down. I’ll have more later today.
