by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2025 09:00:00 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April (“April” is a 3-month average of February, March and April closing prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 2.7% Annual Gain in April 2025
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 2.7% annual return for April, down from a 3.4% annual gain in the previous month.
The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.1%, down from a 4.8% annual increase in the
previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, down from a 4.1%
increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities
with a 7.9% increase in April, followed by Chicago and Detroit with annual increases of 6.0% and 5.5%,
respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2%.
…
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw slight upward trends in April, posting gains of
0.6%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices both reported gains of 0.7%.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.4%. Both the 10-City
Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices saw a -0.3% decrease.“The housing market continued its gradual deceleration in April, with annual price gains slowing to their
most modest pace in nearly two years,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income
Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “What’s particularly striking is how this cycle has
reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically
steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing
market that’s increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor.“The National Composite Index posted a 2.7% annual gain in April, marking its slowest year-over-year
appreciation since mid-2023. This deceleration was broad-based, with the 20-City Composite
advancing 3.4% and the 10-City Composite up 4.1%—both substantially below their recent peaks. The
composition of these gains tells an important story: Approximately 1.7 percentage points of April’s
annual increase occurred over the past six months, indicating that price momentum has been
concentrated in the recent spring selling season rather than sustained throughout the year. “
emphasis added
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index was down 0.3% in April (SA). The Composite 20 index was down 0.3% (SA) in April.
The National index was down 0.4% (SA) in April.
The Composite 10 NSA was up 4.1% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 3.4% year-over-year.
The National index NSA was up 2.7% year-over-year.
Annual price changes were lower than expectations. I’ll have more later.
