Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 22nd = Uptrend
- Average Directional Index: Neutral
- Institutional Activity: Uptrend
- On Balance Volume: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook starts the week in an uptrend, pending market reactions to geopolitical events this weekend.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) lost 0.2% last week. The index sits ~4% above the 50-day moving average and ~3% above the 200-day moving average.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for June 22 2025
Institutional Activity and On-Balance Volume ( OBV ) are bullish, though OBV did weaken a bit. The ADX indicator is currently neutral.
S&P Sector Performance from Week 25 of 2025
Energy ( $XLE ) led sectors higher again last week; the only one to manage a gain. Healthcare ( $XLV ) lagged the most, and dropped to bearish bias.
Sector Style Performance from Week 25 of 2025
All styles lost ground last week; High Beta ( $SPHB ) was the best performer, while Quality ( $QUAL ) was the worst. Low Beta and High Dividend styles ( $XPLV & $SPHD ) fell back to neutral bias.
Asset Class Performance from Week 25 2025
Oil ( $USO ) led assets higher again, and is now risen more than 20% in the past 4 weeks. Bitcoin was the worst performer, continuing to act like a risk-asset rather than a store of value.
COMMENTARY
The U.S. military bombed Iranian nuclear facilities Saturday evening. At the moment, we’re waiting for the response, and the response to the response, both geopolitically and in markets. Besides the price volatility we’ll see when futures trading opens ( Sunday 6pm ET ), this is also certain: initial actions always create responses that are unanticipated and unintended. Something something, causal relationships and feedback loops, something something.
Macro-wise, May retail sales were worse than expected, falling 0.9%. The FOMC left rates unchanged, citing the unknown impact of recently enacted U.S. economic policies. This week, Federal Reserve Chair Powell gets interrogated by will deliver testimony to Congress, the third and final Q1 GDP revision is released, as well as May Durable Goods and PCE data.
Best to Your Week!
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