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Weak Guidance Exposes AI Lag at Salesforce

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Salesforce’s
Q3 revenue outlook trails the Street, shares sag in after-hours, and a bigger
buyback does little to paper over a slower payoff from Agentforce-style AI.

The
Headline number that Hit the Stock

Salesforce, the company behind untold millions of businesses’
CRMs, told investors to expect Q3
revenue of $10.24 billion to $10.29 billion. The midpoint sits below the
average analyst estimate, and traders did not love it. Shares fell more than 5%
in extended trading after the release. The company also guided adjusted EPS to
$2.84 to $2.86 for the quarter, roughly in line with expectations.

An
AI promise is Still a Promise

Many are seeing
the miss as a monetization story. Salesforce has rolled out its Agentforce
platform and woven artificial intelligence (AI) across clouds, yet analysts highlighted that payback is
taking longer than investors hoped. The company even pointed to efficiency
gains from AI internally. Speaking
on The Logan Bartlett Show last week, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said
AI-driven efficiencies let the company trim 4,000 customer support roles from a
9,000-person team. According
to Reuters, AI now accounts for roughly 30% to 50% of its work. Great for
margins, less convincing for near-term top line acceleration.

What
This Says About Broader Market Trends

The Salesforce
wobble is a microcosm of 2025’s software tape. Investors have become allergic
to stories that lean on “AI soon” rather than “AI now.” Hardware and infra
players have booked the obvious early gains.

Application-layer
vendors need to prove two things to get a rerating: that AI features are priced
as products rather than freebies inside bundles, and that customers are
deploying at scale rather than running pilots forever. Salesforce’s guide implies
deal cycles still feel macro drag and AI add-ons are not yet a material second
engine. That is not unique to CRM, but because Salesforce is the category
bellwether, the patience bar is lower and the scrutiny bar is higher.

The
Street’s Message in Plain English

Investors can
live with flat to slightly lower growth if visibility improves. They cannot
live with lower growth and fuzzy AI monetization timing. The after-hours slide
tells you that buybacks are table stakes, not catalysts, and that the market
wants a clean line from Agentforce usage to upsell to dollars. Until then,
every software guide gets graded on two curves: macro and AI conversion.
Salesforce just showed how unforgiving that curve is when you come in light.

Where
Salesforce Goes from Here

There are levers.
The company still posted a revenue beat for the prior quarter, it continues to
push AI throughout the stack, and it is not shy about cost discipline. But the
next phase requires pricing power on AI features, proof that autonomous service
agents reduce churn or unlock new seats, and fewer headlines about layoffs and
more about large customers going wall-to-wall with paid AI bundles. If
Salesforce can show that on the next call, the stock reaction will look very
different. If not, expect buybacks to keep doing more heavy lifting than
investors care to admit.

For more stories
of tech around the edges of finance, follow our Trending pages.

This article was written by Louis Parks at www.financemagnates.com.

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