Stock Market Outlook – September 14 2025

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 14th = Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.6%.  The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

We made it through the week without any institutional selling, and two distribution days fell off the count,  so the total sits at 5; still high, but not as worrisome.  Otherwise, the indicators remain bullish.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Sept 14 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
The Technology sector ( $XLC ) outperformed last week, while Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) was the worst sector.  Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) “unimproved” from last week’s improvement, dropping back to Bearish bias, while Utilities ( $XLU ) returned to bullish.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 37 of 2025

The Momentum style ( $MTUM ) beat all comers last week, while Mid-Cap Value  ( $IJJ ) underperformed.

Sector Style Performance from Week 37 of 2025

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) returned got back in the win column last week, and returned to bullish bias.  The U.S. dollar ( $DXY ) underperformed.

Asset Class Performance from Week 37 2025

COMMENTARY
The NFP annual revision lowered 2024 jobs data by 911,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 818,000 revision.  It was the large revision in over 20 years, and suggests the labor market has been weaker than previously thought.  The revision gives the FOMC the needed rationale to begin cutting interest rates, although it also increases the political pressure to do more.

Inflation data was mixed, with producer prices rising more slowly than consumer prices.  Headline and Core PPI showed a decline in prices during August, even after downward revisions to July figures.

Headline CPI showed modest increases in headline data, while core remained flat at 3.1%.

We’ve got the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday this week, with many expecting a rate cut given weaker employment data (the bond market included).  Chairman Powell “pivoted” from inflation to labor last year, so not cutting would be more surprising at this point.

Best to Your Week!

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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

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