Calculated Risk: YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:54:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch.  

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through August 2025.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Now the YoY change in prices is increasing due to tariffs.

Durables were up 1.9% YoY as of August 2025, up from 1.2% YoY the previous month.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 1.5% YoY in August, up from 1.1% YoY the previous month.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through August) and housing from the PCE report (through July)

Shelter was up 3.6% year-over-year in August, down from 3.7% in July. Housing (PCE) was up 4.0% YoY in July, down from 4.1% in June.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.7% YoY in August, up from 2.5% YoY in July.