Almanac Trader — Are Fed Rate Cut Expectations Pulling Typical…

Over the last 21 years, the market has generally exhibited weakness through the first four trading days of September before rallying to a peak just after mid-month. This year, September did start off poorly but quickly reversed higher as the odds of a Fed interest rate cut soared. With the Fed scheduled to make an announcement on September 17, the 12th trading day of the month, it appears the market is pulling typical mid-month gains forward. Once the market gets the interest rate cut it expects, it still may not be enough to avoid historical end-of-Q3 weakness.