#AI horizons 25-08 – Market trends

Enterprise AI Market Shifts: Claude Surges, OpenAI Retreats

Menlo Ventures’ mid-year update shows Anthropic Claude overtaking OpenAI in enterprise AI. Consumer AI apps stabilize while Google, Grok, and coding platforms surge.

Summary

Enterprise AI is undergoing a major reshuffle. Menlo Ventures’ 2025 mid-year LLM market update shows Anthropic’s Claude leading enterprise adoption, while OpenAI slips. Meanwhile, consumer AI apps are consolidating, Google finally delivers multiple hits, and newcomers like Grok and “vibe coding” tools drive unexpected growth. Microsoft is also pushing infrastructure innovation with its Prompt Orchestration Markup Language (POML).

News

Claude overtakes OpenAI in enterprise AI
Anthropic has captured 32% of enterprise market share, pushing OpenAI down to 25%. Claude Sonnet 3.5, 3.7, and Claude 4 are driving adoption, particularly in coding, where Claude now controls 42% of the market. Google holds 20%, Meta’s Llama 9%, and DeepSeek trails with 1%.

AI coding ecosystem explodes
Claude’s momentum has turned coding from a GitHub Copilot monopoly into a $1.9B ecosystem. Platforms like Cursor, Windsurf, Lovable, Bolt, and Replit are scaling fast, with Lovable already surpassing $100M ARR.

U.S. government taps ChatGPT for $1/year
OpenAI struck a symbolic deal with the U.S. federal government, offering ChatGPT Enterprise for $1/year to agencies, senators, and judges. The pilot aims to accelerate adoption while Google reportedly explores a similar Gemini agreement.

MIT study: AI pilots failing at scale
A new MIT study found 95% of corporate AI pilots fail to deliver revenue acceleration, citing budget misallocation. Firms focused on sales tools, while automation of back-office functions offered the highest ROI.

Microsoft POML makes orchestration open-source
Microsoft has launched POML on GitHub, a Prompt Orchestration Markup Language designed to standardize and streamline prompt workflows. The project invites developer contributions to simplify integration in enterprise AI.

Consumer AI apps stabilize
Andreessen Horowitz’s latest ranking of the top 100 consumer AI apps shows consolidation. Only 11 new desktop entrants and 14 new mobile entrants broke through, signaling a maturing ecosystem.

Google finally lands hits
Gemini now ranks #2 in consumer traffic (about 12% of ChatGPT’s web share, nearly half on mobile). AI Studio (#10), NotebookLM (#13), and Google Labs (#39) also cracked the list, marking Google’s strongest showing yet.

Grok rockets up the charts
Elon Musk’s Grok 4 exploded to #4 in web traffic and #23 on mobile, hitting 20M+ MAUs. The July launch, plus its anime avatar feature, fueled a 40% spike. Elon’s X strategy is now directly tied to consumer AI engagement.

“Vibe coding” trend goes mainstream
Platforms like Lovable and Manus are seeing explosive growth. Lovable jumped to #22 and $100M ARR, while Manus reached #27 with a $90M run rate. Early signs suggest the rise of “personal software” as users build apps for themselves rather than scale to others.

Closing

The AI market is bifurcating: enterprise buyers are consolidating around performance leaders like Anthropic, while consumer adoption is stabilizing into fewer, stronger apps. Microsoft is betting on infrastructure, Google is finally delivering products that resonate, and Musk’s Grok is showing viral momentum. For enterprises, the key risk is misplaced investment—MIT’s findings underline that AI only delivers ROI when tied to core process automation. The winners of 2025 will be those who combine strong foundational models with clear, high-value applications.