30% of iPhone Owners Mulling Move to Rivals’ Foldables: Study

A survey released Monday by a trade-in comparison website found that 30% of iPhone owners are “considering” switching to foldable phones by Apple’s competitors if the company waits until 2026 to launch a foldable of its own.

According to the survey by SellCell, 20.1% of iPhone owners would consider switching to a Samsung foldable and 10.2% to a Google one if Apple waits until next year to introduce its take on the form factor.

The survey of more than 2,000 U.S. iPhone owners also found that 3.3% were waiting for an iPhone foldable before upgrading to their next iPhone.

Nevertheless, the survey suggested a strong upgrade cycle ahead for Apple, with 68.3% of iPhone owners saying they will be buying an iPhone 17, which is expected to be announced next week.

“We don’t see the lack of a foldable product significantly impacting Apple’s iPhone unit sales,” said William Kerwin, a senior equity analyst with Morningstar Research Services in Chicago.

“We continue to see foldable phones as a relative market niche, with high price points and low volumes,” he told TechNewsWorld. “This is part of why Apple has held off on the form factor so far.”

“Additionally,” he continued, “the foldable screens have thus far lacked the quality Apple would require to release its own. We think they will come out with a foldable, but expect it to be a lower-volume product compared to the flagship iPhone lineup.”

“We don’t see a future foldable hampering sales for the iPhone 17 lineup this fall,” he added. “In fact, we expect Apple to release a thin version of the iPhone that could get consumers excited about a new form factor for the first time in a few years.”

Considering Isn’t Switching

Ross Rubin, the principal analyst with Reticle Research, a consumer technology advisory firm in New York City, pointed out that “considering” switching was a weak measure for measuring loyalty. “There’s a big leap between considering and actually switching,” he told TechNewsWorld.

He also doubted that 30% of iPhone owners would switch because “nowhere near 30% of even high-end Android users are choosing foldables.”

“We don’t see a massive shift from iOS to Android or from iPhones to foldables,” said Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for EMEA devices at IDC, a market research company in Framingham, Mass.

“The numbers on foldables are still very low,” he told TechNewsWorld. “The percentage of foldables is less than 2% of the 1.2 billion smartphones sold every year. We expect that to grow faster when Apple launches a foldable device.”

“But at the moment, we don’t see the intentions of those responding to the survey materializing in real sales,” he noted.

This is another case of the market waiting for Apple to verify this form factor, he added. “I’m sure there’s a lot more users waiting for Apple to launch their foldable device rather than rushing now to a foldable from Samsung or other vendors,” he said. “If someone is on iOS, it’s very hard for them to move to Android, as well as when someone is on Android, it’s quite hard to adapt to iOS.”

Waiting for Mature Market

Tim Bajarin, president of Creative Strategies, a technology advisory firm in San Jose, Calif., explained that foldable smartphones are a niche market worldwide.

“In 2023, they accounted for approximately 1.4% of the overall smartphone market,” he told TechNewsWorld. “This share is expected to slightly increase to 1.5% in 2024. The market share is projected to exceed 2% only by 2025.”

Current U.S. iPhone model shares show that larger-screen formats like Pro Max and Plus already make up more than a third of sales, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, a market research firm in Chicago.

US iPhone Model Shares – 12 Months Ending March 2025

Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners

Foldables remain a niche, but they’re growing steadily, added Mark N. Vena, president and principal analyst at SmartTech Research, a technology advisory firm in Las Vegas.

“Samsung has done the heavy lifting in normalizing the format, and Google has followed with its Pixel Fold and has made enormous engineering inroads on its hinge designs,” he told TechNewsWorld. “Still, foldables make up a small percentage of overall smartphone shipments, mostly appealing to early adopters and power users.”

While foldables are a niche market, Apple’s pace in embracing the form factor, as indicated by the SellCell survey, has frustrated many of its faithful. “The SellCell survey reveals a palpable sense of impatience,” Vena said. “About a third of iPhone users are at least open to switching if Apple delays too long. That signals not mass rebellion, but enough frustration that Apple can’t ignore it.”

He acknowledged, however, that the foot-dragging was “characteristic of Apple at its best.” “The company typically waits until a new category is mature before jumping in,” he explained. “Foldables are still ironing out durability, cost, and software optimization issues. Apple wants to deliver a foldable that feels polished from day one, not like a tech experiment.”

Creative Strategies’ Bajarin agreed. “Apple is very disciplined and will only bring one out when they believe they can have one that is worthy of their brand,” he said. “There are still issues with foldable screens and other areas that emerge over time. Apple would want the technology to meet their high standards, and that is why they have not released one yet.”

“Apple is unlikely to release a foldable until they have a guarantee that they’re not going to see a wave of returns,” added Andrew Cornwall, a senior analyst with Forrester Research, a market research company headquartered in Cambridge, Mass.

“Traditionally, iPhone users have been a lot less willing to overlook UX imperfections,” he told TechNewsWorld. “They may not be as accepting of a line down the middle of the screen as their Android counterparts.”

Curiosity, Not Discontent

“The SellCell survey appears to demonstrate some discontent, although we’d describe it as curiosity about foldable phones rather than unhappiness with the current iPhone models,” observed Michael R. Levin, partner and co-founder of Consumer Intelligence Research Partners.

“Upgrade intent is difficult to understand,” he told TechNewsWorld. “Consumers want new stuff all the time, so we prefer to look at actual behavior.”

“Apple makes significant form factor changes, like to a foldable phone, only when it is absolutely certain it has mastered the tech,” he added. “Until now, and probably for the time being, foldable phones are more of a novelty than a critical part of their model lineup.”

It’s only this year that “no compromise” foldables, such as the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7, the Magic E5, the Pixel, and others, have been introduced in the market, explained IDC’s Jeronimo. “We believe the category will grow much faster,” he continued. “And that’s why Apple is entering the market at the right time next year. It wouldn’t make sense to bring a foldable device to market when the technology was not yet ready, and there probably wasn’t enough demand for them to sell in large volumes.”

“Apple may end up redefining the foldable space when it finally enters, much as it did with smartwatches and tablets — much to the ironic chagrin of Samsung,” added Vena. “The question is less whether Apple will make a foldable, and more whether it can make one mainstream. When that happens, foldables could go from niche curiosity to everyday device.”