Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for August 11, 2025

Spread the love

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back.
My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of August the 11th, 2025.\

PowerShares DB US Dollar IDN Bullish Fund ($UUP)

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we usually do — with the U.S. Dollar Index. Now, we can look at two different ETFs here — the UUP or the WisdomTree Bloomberg USDU. Either one has very, very similar signals, but let’s look at the USDU. Now, we have three lines of support here running right along the T-cross long. We know that the U.S. Dollar Index — or the U.S. dollar in general — does not do very well the week after the non-farm payroll, regardless of whether that number is good or bad. So, this is perfectly normal with what’s occurred here.

Now, the signal here — we do have a medium crossover to the downside, but we don’t have a long-term crossover. So again, the main support for next week is coming in at 26.27. That is the key level. If we can hold above this, the dollar can likely recover. But as I’ve talked about and warned everybody, there is dollar strength pending — usually it’s the end of August into the month of September. That’s usually when I see this dollar strength, that seasonal pattern, in the U.S. fiscal fourth quarter.

Right now, using the predicted RSI with a 60/40 split, we don’t have momentum on the downside in the dollar, so really, guys, we’re just pretty much range trading for the most part.

Euro versus US. Dollar ($EUR/USD)

If I do a comparative analysis — a direct comparative analysis — to the EUR/USD pair, we can draw a line right across the highest point of this past week. That level there will come in at or about 1.17 — the top of the overall range, which is at the quarterly opening price 1.1787.

As I’ve talked about in previous weekly outlooks, we’re basically trading between the monthly and the quarterly opening price — we sell one and buy the other. But I would not necessarily buy the euro in the month of September given that seasonal pattern. So again, the euro’s primary trend for the year is still up, but it is very unlikely that the euro will be able to break through the 1.1787 mark.

SPDR SPY / S&P 500

Now, when we look at the equity markets for this past week, they continue to do well, as you can see, running off that monthly opening price — that area coming in at 626 on the SPY. We’ve accelerated off of there multiple days in a row. So again, making all-time new highs recently over here on the SPY on July the 31st, but that would be the area we would need to break above.

The indicators in VP are bullish going into next week. The predicted RSI is showing momentum on a break of the 60 level. This is a 9-period predicted RSI, by the way. But the main thing is the 60/40 split. We’re looking to trade momentum here, not overbought/oversold — that’s a critical point I want to make. Because again, every time the S&P 500 has moved lower, that’s been a very good buy-on-the-dip opportunity since about May.

We’ll continue to run along with that for now. Our T-cross long — that area coming in at about 630.5 — we want to hold above that and the monthly opening price.

DAX 30

When we do a further comparative analysis to the German equity markets, we can see that they’re slowly recovering, and this has a lot to do with the EUR/USD pair. If we look at the DAX 30 — again, it can be tied to the euro currency. When we look at the EUR/USD pair and we look at the direct intermarket correlation, this is very important: the euro and the DAX are basically moving up and down together.

In most cases, that’s not really how things work, guys. Predominantly, it’s been euro up/DAX down, S&P 500 up/Dollar Index down. So basically, if the DAX is going to continue to move higher, then it would, in theory, require the euro to move higher also.

Just for my German friends — always remember that and keep an eye on that euro currency against the U.S. dollar, because it’s very, very important that we’re watching these things.

Right now, the DAX is holding above its monthly opening price — clearly bullish while above that level. We’re moving above the quarterly at 445.6 on the ETF side. Our MA-diff cross looks good, and we’re building momentum here.

Gold

Now, the gold market saw strong buying this week with the tariff announcement. But again, gold remained bullish to begin with. We’ve been holding above the calendar yearly, monthly, and quarterly opening prices. Everything’s still looking very good here — the momentum building with the gold long trade looks good. MA-diff cross is up. But always remember, again, guys — gold predominantly does very well in late October, November, and December. September could be hot now with the tariffs, but we’ll see how this one plays out. The indicators at this time still remain quite bullish.

Oil / Natural Gas ($USO)

Now, for oil traders going into next week — oil really taking a hit. Drew the trendline in from last week, but now we’ve broken down below the calendar yearly opening price, in my respectful opinion only. As we move into September, October, and November, I move from oil to natural gas.

Natural gas contracts did well this week as oil started to move lower. But this is looking quite bearish for oil, also potentially pointing to a recession. In most cases, seasonal oil contracts start to weaken in late August/mid-September. For next week, we have very identifiable resistance here — the yearly opening price at 76.84, then the T-cross long at 75.93.

I would respectfully submit that the breakdown below the calendar yearly opening price, with the T-cross long sitting right there, was a very, very good short trade. But I think we have further downside — potentially back into that $65–$70 a barrel mark at the very minimum. And again, keep your eye on natural gas contracts, because they usually do quite well.

VIX

Now, with the VIX, always good to keep an eye on it. Pretty straightforward check for this coming week — we’re below the yearly opening price. The global equity markets are looking decent. Are they overbought? Well, they’ve been overbought for many months, if not many years, so it’s not a reason to sell. The longs on the global equity markets remain in place, and the VIX is confirming that.

But a bigger signal appears to be forming — the breakdown below the 60 on the predicted RSI, the breakdown below the yearly opening, the monthly opening, and the T-cross long. We can see where all of the resistance for next week is — right around 42.43, and the yearly at 44.24.

Bitcoin

Now, with Bitcoin going into next week — again, trying to recover here. It didn’t have a bad week at all, but it’s still struggling around the calendar monthly opening price. Structurally, I would look at this as: the primary trend is up while above the yearly opening price 93,804. On this particular quarter, Bitcoin is doing very well above 107,598, but the monthly opening price is where it’s struggling.

The T-cross long is sitting there also — 115,964. That’s the level we have to stay above, with the monthly opening price at 116,501. This is critical resistance and support depending on which side the market is on. I believe Bitcoin will move lower going into September and then recover dramatically in October — maybe even late September. But for now, still moderately bullish.

You can see all of these verified zones here also represent a number of lower highs. If we can’t hold above that monthly opening price, then Bitcoin is likely coming back into that 107,000 range.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

When we look at some of our main forex pairs, we’ve looked at the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD (pound/dollar). Again, always remember the G7 pairs have one thing in common, guys — they’re trading against the U.S. dollar. So, if the U.S. dollar can recover, then those pairs will drop.

Now, the GBP/USD has made it back up above the T-cross long. We’re holding above the monthly opening price, but it’s the quarterly opening at 1.3733 — that’s simply a retracement point at this point. The Bank of England cutting rates — they’re starting to sound more dovish. So even if the Fed does end up cutting in September, they’re just getting in line with the other central banks. It’s kind of a standoff there between the central banks, but they’re all going to be dovish to some degree.

So again, I think we’re retracing towards the 1.37 level, and then — by the end of August going into September — we would be looking for shorts on this particular pair.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now again, looking at the USD/CHF (U.S. dollar/Swiss franc) — again, a dollar-based trade here, and it’s running sideways. This is a great leading indicator for the dollar in general. The Swiss franc has been very strong against the dollar, and it’s struggling here. The dollar is holding its own. The T-cross long at 0.8046 — that’s the level we want to watch for next week.

We’re positive on the quarter. The USD/CHF has not been positive in any one of the quarters this year — I don’t believe. I’ll go back and check that just to make sure I’m saying something accurate. You can see when we started the calendar year, again, we were struggling right out of the gate. We opened up the quarter very bearish, but we’re holding now above the quarterly opening, just like the U.S. Dollar Index. So, keep a very close eye on this particular pair as a leading indicator for EUR/USD also.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, looking at the USD/JPY (dollar/yen) this week — again, it’s all about interest rates here, guys. So, if the carry trade is in trouble, then there’s going to be downward pressure on the USD/JPY when the Fed decides to cut — and how much is it going to cut? How often is it going to cut? All of these things need to be answered.

September will be a hotbed in the currency market, the equities, and particularly in the futures and ETF side. But for now, the USD/JPY is basically running flat here, with a slight downward bias towards the end of the month. I anticipate it could move higher just for the month of September. We’ll monitor that. The T-cross long at 147.48 — that is the key area.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, one of the final currencies I’ll look at for next week is going to be the AUD/USD (Aussie/U.S. dollar). Again, an equity-driven currency, but it’s also a gold and copper-driven currency. What we’re looking for is for the pair to remain above 0.6427. We target 0.6581, but I think this pair will struggle around that particular area.

If we can get above 0.6581, we’re going to have a clear run at longs for the remainder of 2025. But I don’t think that’s going to happen until October. Right now, if we can hold above the VPT cross long at 0.6508, then longs are reasonable. But again, if we can’t hold above that level, then we could be turning lower — and multiple other trades could actually spin off of this. So again, keep an eye on that key level.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The NZD/USD (Kiwi) has not done anywhere near as well as the AUD/USD. The Kiwi has struggled this whole time. It’s been under pressure from the AUD/NZD cross pair. But same deal here, guys — 0.5955. We need to get above that area, but we’re losing momentum. You can see the predicted RSI is struggling right on that 60 level.

When we look at the AUD/USD, we can see the same thing. Everybody uses the predicted RSI, stochastic, different indicators for overbought and oversold, when they’re actually designed for momentum. And this is saying there isn’t a lot of momentum on the Aussie or the Kiwi. So that’s something we always want to take into consideration.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar ($USD/CAD)

And then, of course, we have the USD/CAD (U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar) pair. I’m kind of mixing it up a little bit this week, but the USD/CAD is holding — though terrible unemployment numbers are coming out of Canada again. The unemployment number is holding steady — that’s about the only positive I saw in the entire report. We’ve got no trade deal with the U.S., so there’s going to be volatility on this.

Always remember that the Canadian dollar is driven also by oil, not natural gas. So again, there could be problems ahead for the Canadian dollar. And as long as we’re holding above the T-cross long at 1.3740, longs are in play.

Now, we do have a medium-term crossover, but we don’t have a long-term crossover. This could be corrective in nature. We need to combine the crossovers with a main pivot level like the T-cross long. So watch 1.3740 like a hawk. If we’re holding above that by midday or late day on Tuesday, then longs are in play.

With this volatility that will be coming in September, there will always be opportunity, but I think even August could be pretty hot this particular month

So with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of August the 11th, 2025.