TSR lifts 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecast slightly, now 15% above normal

Conditions in the Atlantic tropics now look more favourable than they did one month ago, which has led Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) to slightly increase its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with activity levels now anticipated to be around 15% above normal.

In its first pre-season outlook in December 2024, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) expected 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes for the 2025 hurricane season, numbers that were roughly aligned with the 30-year norm.

Then, in its April 2025 forecast, TSR called for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes to form in the Atlantic basin over the 2025 season, while also saying here could be 2 hurricane landfalls in the United States this year.

Those numbers rose in the TSR late May 2025 forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, when it called for 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 146 for the 2025 Atlantic season and also saying that the United States could experience 3 landfalling hurricanes and 5 landfalling tropical storms.

The July update from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) called for a slightly lower 15 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, with 4 landfalling tropical storms and 2 landfalling hurricanes expected for the US.

Now, the early August forecast update has raised the figures slightly.

Today, TSR issued a forecast calling for 16 named tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, with still 4 named storm landfalls and 2 hurricane landfalls anticipated for the US coastline.

In addition, TSR’s forecast for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the 2025 hurricane season has been raised to 144, up from July’s forecast of 126.

It’s a slight increase that takes into account more favourable conditions for tropical storm formation, as well as warming sea surface temperatures (SST) and ENSO conditions moving to cold neutral the TSR forecast team explain.

“The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) August forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2025 anticipates a season with activity around 15% above the 1991-2020 climate norm. Although there remains uncertainty at this lead time, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be warmer than normal by August-September 2025, and for cold-neutral ENSO conditions to be present through summer and autumn 2025. Both factors are expected to have a moderate enhancing influence on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast has increased since the early July update due to a number of additional factors likely to be more favourable for hurricane activity through the season than previously thought,” they state in the latest forecast.

Temperatures in both the main development region of the Atlantic and the Caribbean are forecast to be warmer than the 1991-2020 climatology, while trade wind speeds are expected to be lower, all of which will have some “enhancing
effect on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season,” the TSR forecast team state.

Forecast models such as the GFS and ECMWF have been calling for potential development of stronger storms for some days now. But with the storms changing in location and size with model runs, it’s clearly a challenging environment in the Atlantic and Caribbean basin for software models right now, making the job of meteorologists and insurance, reinsurance and ILS market specialists a little more challenging right now, as the tropics appear set to transition to a potentially more active phase.

Track the 2025 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.