The Composition of the FOMC

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2025 08:21:00 AM

IMPORTANT: It is critical that the Fed stay independent, data driven, and immune to political pressure. This is also true for the Federal statistical agencies, and the firing of the highly respected BLS commissioner on Friday (because of the bad employment report) is very concerning. The U.S. Senate must ensure that the next BLS commissioner is respected, data driven, and immune to political pressure.

On Friday, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned. This created some concern that she was leaving early and creating a vacancy at a crucial time at the Fed. The Fed needs to be independent, data driven, and not subject to political whims.

In the case of Dr. Kugler, she was appointed to an unexpired term, and her term was scheduled to end in January 2026 (just six months from now). It is likely she left a little early to be available at the start of a school year (she is a professor). So, this is not a big deal. She will miss four FOMC meetings: Sept, Oct, Dec and Jan 2026.

FOMC Composition

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is composed of seven Fed Governors, the President of the NY Fed, and four rotating Federal Reserve Bank district Presidents (there are 12 Fed Districts).

Fed Governors

The Fed Governers are appointed to 14-year terms (every 2 years a term expires). If a Fed Governor leaves early, the President can appoint someone to fill the unexpired term.

This means each President appoints 2 governors and can also fill any unexpired terms.

The other Fed Governor whose term is scheduled to expire while Trump is President is Jerome Powell in January 2028. If he decides to leave early (likely), Trump can appoint someone to fill the unexpired term – and then appoint someone for 14 years in January 2028. It is possible (but unlikely) that Powell will stay until 2028.

Here are the other five Fed Governors:

Christopher J. Waller, appointed by Trump, term expires January 2030

Michael S. Barr, appointed by Biden, term expires January 2032
Michelle W. Bowman, appointed by Trump, term expires January 2034
Philip N. Jefferson, appointed by Biden, term expires January 2036

Lisa D. Cook, appointed by Biden, term expires January 2038

Federal Reserve Bank Presidents on the FOMC

Fed District Presidents serve five-year terms and are appointed by the Directors of each Federal Reserve Bank. The current terms all end in January 2026, but frequently Fed Presidents are reappointed.

This year (2025) the five Fed Presidents on the FOMC are:

John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chair
Susan M. Collins, Boston
Austan D. Goolsbee, Chicago
Alberto G. Musalem, St. Louis
Jeffrey R. Schmid, Kansas City

Next year (2026), the Five Fed Presidents will be (it is likely most, if not all, will be reappointed in January):

John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chair
Beth M. Hammack, Cleveland
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis
Lorie K. Logan, Dallas
Anna Paulson, Philadelphia

This is a qualified group. Even if Powell leaves, and four of the seven Fed Governors are Trump appointees, I think the majority of the FOMC will be very data dependent – and not swayed by politics. And it is a COMMITEE vote! There is the possibility we could see the first ever dissent by a Fed Chair.

Note: The Fed Chair must be one of the Fed Governors. Trump could appoint someone to fill the last six months of Dr. Kugler’s unexpired term and then appoint someone else in January that he intends to name Fed Chair.