Plug Power’s Make-or-Break Moment: Hydrogen’s $3 Lifeline

Billions in losses, and now, a billion-dollar lifeline? A new tax credit extension could flip the script and change everything for Plug Power.

I break down whether this is Plug’s turning point or another dead end for hydrogen investors.

Now, here’s what most people miss: Plug Power has been losing billions, but Washington’s tax credit extension can flip its trajectory.

Could this be the opportunity the company needs?

Plug Power’s Overview

Plug Power specialises in hydrogen infrastructure and its end-to-end ecosystem, including electrolysers, fuel cells, hydrogen plants, and fueling frameworks. Some of its major clients are Amazon, Walmart, and Home Depot.

Plug Power isn’t just developing hydrogen technology, but it also wants to own the entire hydrogen supply chain. The company’s infrastructure advancement supports this.

Plug Power’s Stock Price

Plug Power’s stock currently trades at $1.40 a share and has a ton of daily volume. Over the last 52 weeks, the stock traded between 69 cents and three dollars and thirty-two cents – so today, it’s about the midpoint of that. 

If we look at the short-term technicals, it’s a Weak Sell, meaning the price has been moving down somewhat over the past quarter.

Performance-wise, the stock is up 64% over the last 3 months, but is down 35% year to date, and nearly 40% over the last year. So, does this make it a good time to buy? Maybe. 

Why It’s in the Spotlight

There’s a lot of attention on plug power for a good reason. 

The newly passed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” brings in some powerful incentives for clean hydrogen. The legislation extends the 30% tax credit for fuel cell purchases through 2032 and secures the hydrogen production credit for up to $3 per kilogram for projects that break ground before 2028. 

This initiative is a major win for Plug Power and other hydrogen players betting big on U.S.-based green fuel production because it directly boosts the economics of their core business.

Now the question is: Can this act bring PLUG back to its former glory?

Financials

Investors are not just buying a stock solely for hype. The other part of the story is the company’s financials. These figures tell whether the stock is worth buying. 

With that, let’s look at the most recent financials of Plug Power.

Sales rose 11.2% year-over-year to $133.7 million. Despite that, its net income declined 33.5% from the previous year’s same quarter. The company’s losses are attributed to its core business, highlighting unprofitable operations. 

Zooming out, 2024 has been the worst year for Plug Power – at least with annual sales decreasing 29.5% year-over-year and net losses reaching $2.1 billion, almost doubling the loss from the previous year’s performance.

I find it easy to understand why the stock is largely ignored. The company’s financials signal weakening performance, and the stock’s price follows suit.. 

But in light of the events, could we be on the verge of Plug Power’s rebound?

Growth Catalysts

Let us identify what will help PLUG stock soar once again.

The first reason would be the One Big Beautiful Bill, which was signed into law just this July 4.

Plug Power’s CEO, Andy Marsh, recognised it as “one of the most meaningful policy wins”. The law restores a 30% Investment Tax Credit for fuel cells through 2032 and extends the hydrogen Production Tax Credit through 2027. 

This removes barriers like zero-emission and labour requirements, making credits more accessible. 

Marsh said that this would bring back market confidence and give Plug room to scale projects in Texas, expand electrolyser deployments, and restart liquefier plans.

The second would be Plug Power’s extended hydrogen supply agreement through 2030.

Plug Power’s continuing partnership with a key U.S. industrial gas partner would help achieve margin improvement and cash flow stability. 

The deal lowers hydrogen costs, enhances network efficiency, and secures a reliable supply for over 275 customer sites. This move strengthens Plug’s ability to scale strategically while easing near-term operational and financial pressure.

This is a question that comes up a lot in my Discord channel. Will policy alone keep Plug afloat without real demand?

Think of hydrogen like those early solar panels subsidies got people to try it, but prices never really came down, and real demand never scaled. That’s the risk Plug now faces, despite policy support. But this time, they’re not starting from zero; plants are built, big-name customers are onboard, and credits like $3/kg hydrogen buy them time. If demand picks up – even slightly- Plug could be one of the first to scale. Policy won’t guarantee success, but it gives them a real shot.

Risks & Red Flags

It may seem like all’s set for Plug Power to soar – but it cannot fly without solving its key issue, and that would be Plug Power’s unprofitability and weakening demand.

Despite the company’s effort to keep its financials afloat, its sales and net income took a serious decline in 2024. With five year-consecutive net losses amounting to approximately $5.2 billion, investors may lose patience before Plug Power can ever turn green, at least financially. 

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act could have given Plug Power an allowance to adjust, but that does not mean that a bounce is imminent. If the company does not deliver with the odds in its favour, there would be dire consequences.

Valuation Breakdown

Now let’s look at the PLUG powers valuation and see how it compares to its industry peers.

PLUG’s profit margin is pretty bad, but definitely not the worst among its peers. Also, it is trading at a lower multiple than Ballard and Bloom, but higher than Fuelcell Energy and Nikola, which suggests it’s in the middle of the pack.

So I don’t see it overly overvalued – I just think that the market is likely pricing in policy optimism and long-term upside, rather than current fundamentals.

And frankly, that makes sense. At this point, no one is buying the stock for the hopes of an increased company’s profit margin. Instead, investors are betting on capital appreciation, because that’s what brings personal gains. Many of them, including me, can see the stock catching a rebound action in light of the recent tax credit news.

Who Should Buy This?

There are two types of investors: those who take a shot in the dark and those who truly believe in the technology. Between the two is the one who plays the long game – and will often get the greatest returns, maybe one out of 5 or 10 stocks.

That’s how I view Plug Power. It’s a potential long-term bet. It is volatile, high-risk, and exposed to market and policy shifts, but potentially rewarding if the company delivers on its vision.

That said, if you’re a more conservative investor seeking steady income or predictable returns, PLUG likely isn’t the right fit for your portfolio.