More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike

More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike

This morning’s commentary led with our desire to avoid jinxing this week’s flat, boring market movement with rates at long term lows.  But for a few minutes mid-day, it looked like the jinx was real. At 11:35am, yields shot 3bps higher in a matter of minutes and in exceptionally heavy volume. Several hours later and there are still no solid explanations for the mini-drama. Thankfully, explanations are less important after Treasuries fully erased the mid-day weakness.  Mystery moves like this happen.  They usually offer clues by end of the trading session, but traders/analysts only tend to ravenously pursue those clues when the day-over-day movement is much larger.  Since today’s wasn’t, this one will be forgotten and chalked up to a very small number of tight-lipped traders making very big moves that caused a mini mid-day snowball.