Joby Aviation’s 270% Surge Breakthrough or Bubble?

Joby Aviation is up 270% in the last year… and I’m not buying yet.

Look, I’ve been trading since ‘99. I’ve seen a lot of hype. And this? Smells like it.

Joby just hit a $15 billion market cap, despite having zero revenue last quarter. That’s not a typo.

They’re burning cash, bleeding losses and Wall Street? Still calling it a “Hold” with a price target 50% below its current trading price.

I’m not a financial advisor and that’s a good thing. I’m not here to sell you a retirement plan or the next meme stock. I break down the numbers so you can make smarter, more confident decisions.

Let’s get into it.

Joby Aviation’s Overview

Well, it’s a company that builds electric aircraft that take off straight up and down. Just like helicopters do. But these aircraft are different from helicopters. They’re designed to be much quieter. They’re more efficient. And they’re better for the environment. Think of them as electric air taxis.

The company started back in 2009. The founder

began this business focused on new aircraft technology. Over the years, Joby grew from a small startup into a public company. They now have major backing from big investors and car companies.

What makes Joby unique from traditional aircraft companies is simple. They focus on electric power and straight-up takeoffs. Their aircraft uses six electric motors and rotors to fly. I mean, this makes it work more like a big drone than a regular aeroplane.

Joby went public back in August 2021. They merged with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, which gave them access to public markets. It also gave them the funds they needed to keep developing their technology and move toward actual business operations.

Stock Price Action

Since then, Joby stock has experienced notable swings over its public trading history. The stock has recently surged to new highs around $19, which is around 270% growth over the span of 1 year. That’s a lot of improvement.

The biggest reason for the recent jump happened just this month, when Joby announced the acquisition of Blade Air Mobility’s passenger business for up to $125 million. This news made the shares spike over 20% in one day, as investors saw the deal as a way to speed up the company’s path to real business operations.

The deal gives Joby several big advantages right off the bat. It provides access to 12 city terminals, including John Kennedy Airport, Newark Airport, and multiple Manhattan locations, plus a customer base of over 50,000 passengers who flew with Blade in 2024. This infrastructure and customer network could help Joby skip years of market development. Of course, that happens once their electric aircraft gets certified.

The rally also shows broader investor excitement about the progress, and the company recently announced its expanding manufacturing at sites in Marina, California, and Dayton, Ohio. Mainly to double production capacity. And, with these developments, Joby is moving closer towards FAA certification and commercial launch.

That said, the current stock price shows high expectations for Joby’s future. I mean, the company now has a market value of over $15 billion despite making zero revenue in the 1st quarter. I think investors are betting big on Joby’s commercial launch and fast market adoption. So, any delays or setbacks could cause a massive price correction.

Second Quarter Financials

Now, let’s look at the actual company financials. On Wednesday, Joby reported its second-quarter earnings for 2025. 

Compared to the same quarter last year, its revenue for the quarter declined from $28 million to $15 million. Operating loss increased 16%, while net loss increased 163% compared ot the same period last year. 

That said, the decline is primarily driven by the drastic increase in operating expenses, which is mainly about research and development. Now, there’s not much to discuss about its financials since Joby is really just getting its feet wet, so these negative figures aren’t much of a surprise.

I mean, Joby is currently like a startup restaurant during its first month of operation. You’re seeing all the upfront costs of equipment, staff training, and recipe development, but the dinner rush hasn’t started yet.

So, what’s the likelihood of the company growing further?

Potential Growth Driver

Well, apart from the Blade Air Mobility acquisition, the biggest thing that could speed up Joby’s growth is the development of urban air mobility infrastructure. The market is estimated to reach $28.5 billion by 2030, as cities and airports start building vertiports and charging stations for electric aircraft. If development moves in the right direction, it would be a massive growth runway for many operators like Joby.

Fortunately, several major airports and cities have announced plans to build vertiport infrastructure. Los Angeles has made announcements for the 2026 Olympics.

So have New York and Miami. And, all have looked at partnerships with electric aviation companies to develop landing sites and support services.

You see, passengers need convenient places to get on and off, and aircraft need places to land, charge, and get maintenance. If this infrastructure development speeds up, it could remove one of the major barriers to widespread adoption of air taxi services.

Moreover, government support for sustainable transportation could also drive infrastructure investment. Though there weren’t any words about it, I think incentives for electric aviation would help massively. These would be similar to incentives provided for electric cars. If that happens, the development of this new transportation network would be so much faster. 

Risks

Joby works in a market that’s getting more competitive every day, and this is something we often tackle in my Discord server. Several other companies are building similar electric vertical takeoff aircraft, and each has its own approach. 

I think Archer Aviation is Joby’s biggest and direct competitor. They have a similar business model and aircraft design, and are also working through FAA certification. Archer Aviation has also partnered with major companies like United Airlines.

Other competitors include Lilium Air Mobility from Germany, which is also developing a different type of electric aircraft. Another one is EHang from China, which focuses on passenger drones that fly themselves. 

More importantly, massive aerospace companies like Boeing and Airbus are also putting money into electric aviation technologies. So with this, we can expect the competition to get more intense.

However, the competition goes beyond just building aircraft. Air taxi companies like Joby are also competing for partnerships with airlines and ride-sharing services, for deals with developers, and even for the best engineering and manufacturing capacity.

I mean, it’s something we can expect from relatively new markets like this.

On the consumer end, this competition means better prices, but for investors, it also means Joby’s success isn’t guaranteed. Even if the overall market for electric aviation grows as expected, Joby might have a hard time competing with giants like Boeing and Airbus.

With this, a partnership with these airlines is the best way forward. 

Ratings

Meanwhile, Wall Street rated Joby as a “Hold” over the past 3 months. As a conservative investor myself, this rating is understandable.  

The highest price target for Joby is only around $13 per share, which is notably lower than the current price levels of around $19 per share. This means that Wall Street thinks Joby overpriced. The average price target is $8.75, which means the downside potential is over 50% should the stock trigger a price correction.  

My Verdict

As a conservative investor myself, I don’t feel comfortable starting a position right now, especially with a sudden spike in share price and progressive cash burn. I’d wait for Joby to narrow the gap between loss and profitability before jumping in, because right now, it’s a little too wide for me. But again, that’s just my take as a conservative investor, and Joby is a high-risk, high-reward type of investment.

So that’s my take on Joby Aviation. What do you think about the company? Are you buying into their potential?