Investment Talk: Andrew Peller Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. Most Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Andrew Peller Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that this stock is cheap for a reason. Growth is low and they are paying too much out in dividends. The dividend payouts are set to moderate according to analysts, but they do not expect much growth in Revenue and Earnings over the next couple of year. A plus is that they have been paying dividends each year for the past 46 years. Over the past 37 years, they have raised the dividends 16 times. This stock is certainly testing as cheap.

I do not own this stock of Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF), but I used to. This stock was on Mike Higgs’ dividend growth stock list. I owned this stock as Andres Wines Ltd between 1996 and 2000. When I held this stock, it was called Andres Wines Ltd. I sold in 2000 and I only made a total return of 5.41% per year with capital gains at 0.06% and dividends at 5.35%.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that growth in Revenue has been low. Revenue growth is important because if this does not grow there is not much hope for revenue and cash flow growth. They are paying too much in dividends, but analyst expect DPR to be in the 50% ranges this year and next. It would be better in the 40% ranges. Analysts do not expect much growth this year or next.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,004.67 you would have bought 200 shares at $5.02 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $416.72 in dividends. The stock would be worth $828.00. Your total return would have been $1,244.72. This would be a total return of 2.53% per year with 1.92% from capital loss and 4.45% from dividends. The thing with dividend stocks is that you tend not to lose money overall.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$5.02	$1,004.67	200	10	$416.72	$828.00	$1,244.72

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.50%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.19%, 2.15% and 3.72%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 3% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 9.04%. There have been no dividend increases since. There is no information on what the dividend increases might resume. However, they have never raised the dividends each year. `

Most Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 97% with 5 year coverage at 117%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is too high at 103% with 5 year coverage at 134%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 17% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at35% with 5 year coverage too high at 72%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	97.27%	116.54%
AEPS	102.66%	134.26%
CFPS	17.43%	30.40%
FCF	35.48%	71.95%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine at 0.86 and currently at 0.74, but would be better if the values were 0.50 or under. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 3.40 and 3.40 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.81 and 1.81 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.23 and 1.23 and currently at 2.23 and 1.23.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.86	0.74
Intang/GW	0.43	0.37
Liquidity	3.40	3.40
Liq. + CF	4.17	3.83
Debt Ratio	1.81	1.81
Leverage	2.23	2.23
D/E Ratio	1.23	1.23

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 40 to the end of 2024 for Class A stock. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	2.96%	-15.73%	-18.91%	3.18%
2014	10	6.18%	2.53%	-1.92%	4.45%
2009	15	5.51%	8.39%	3.15%	5.24%
2004	20	6.36%	5.50%	1.43%	4.07%
1999	25	5.06%	8.88%	3.95%	4.94%
1994	30	4.46%	8.99%	4.00%	4.99%
1989	35	3.81%	8.77%	3.34%	5.43%
1984	40	3.60%	7.38%	2.96%	4.42%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.86, 14.96 and 18.05. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.87, 17.92 and 21.79. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.45, 13.26 and 14.76. The current ratio is 12.72 based on a stock price of $5.47 and EPS estimate for 2026 is $0.43. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.21, 15.40 and 18.59. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.24, 17.30 and 21.91. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.24, 14.45 and 15.92. The current ratio is 11.64 based on a stock price of $5.47 and AEPS estimate for 2026 is $0.47. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $7.71. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.98, 1.33 and 1.67. The current ratio is 0.71 based on a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price of $5.47, Book Value of $243.8M and Book Value per Share of $5.62. The current ratio is below the 10 year Ratio by 43%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.51. The current ratio is 6.08 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $0.90, Cash Flow of $39M, and a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratio by 58%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.72%. The current dividend yield is 4.50% based on dividends of $.246 and a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is 21% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.15%. The current dividend yield is 4.50% based on dividends of $.246 and a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is 109% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.05. The current ratio is 0.60 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $393.6M, Revenue per Share of $9.08 and a stock price of $5.47. The current ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield testing is saying this. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the tests are saying the same thing, that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Strong Buy (2). The 12 months stock price is $12.00 with a high of $13.50 and low of $10.50. The 12 month stock price of $12.00 implies a total return of 123.88% with 119.38% from capital gains and 4.50% from dividends based on a current stock price of $5.47.

The last analyst comment was in 2024 on Stock Chase. Analyst said Do Not Buy. He saw the future uncertain because of Ontario rolling out more retail locations. A comment in 2023 was that the price dropped due to slow growth and supply chain issues. Brian Paradza on Motley Fool thinks this company will gain because of US wine being pulled from Canadian shelves. This is not a well followed stock and the comment prior was in 2023.
Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks that this is a highly defensive stock. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter results for March 2025.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance review this stock. They like it that it is up 17% in the previous quarter, but says that does not change the fact that shareholders have losses over the past 5 years. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings out on this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; earnings have declined by 55.5% per year over past 5 years; and dividend of 4.52% is not well covered by earnings.

Andrew Peller Ltd is a wine-producing company. The company is engaged in the production, bottling, and marketing of wine, spirits, and craft beverage alcohol products in Canada. Some of the company’s brands are Peller Estates, Trius Winery, Thirty Bench, Wayne Gretzky, Sandhill, Red Rooster, Calona Vineyards, and many more. The Company owns and operates independent retail locations in Ontario under The Wine Shop, Wine Country Vintners, and Wine Country Merchants store. Its web site is here Andrew Peller Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB) … learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Evertz Technologies Ltd (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) … learn more on Wednesday, August 13, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about George Friedman on Russia…. learn more on Tuesday, August 11, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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