India’s Economic Growth Sees Little Change - Asia Law Portal

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The economic growth forecast by leading global institutions shows no significant change from their previous forecasts. Government data shows marked growth in intellectual property filings, and some progress has been made in reviewing data privacy rules. Increasing the threshold of current avenues of foreign investment is also on the cards.

Asian Development Bank – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently released its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2025 report. According to the report, the Indian economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in FY2025, lower than the 6.7% forecast in the April 2025 ADO (as reported by Asia Law Portal), but still one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. This revision is primarily due to the impact of US baseline tariffs and associated policy uncertainty. In addition to the effects of lower global growth and the direct impact of additional US tariffs on Indian exports, heightened policy uncertainty may affect investment flows. Despite this, economic activity remains robust, with domestic consumption set to grow strongly on the back of a revival of rural demand. Services and agriculture sectors are expected to be key drivers of growth; the latter supported by a forecast of above-normal monsoon rains. The central government’s fiscal position remains strong, with higher-than-expected dividends from the Reserve Bank of India and is on track to meet the targeted reduction in its fiscal deficit. In FY2026, growth is forecast to improve to 6.7% (which is still lower than 6.8% in the April 2025 ADO, reported by Asia Law Portal) on account of rising investments, under the assumption of reduced policy uncertainty and favourable financial conditions backed by recent reductions in the repo rate and the cash reserve ratio by the monetary authorities. The baseline expectations of lower crude oil prices will also support economic activity in FY2025 and FY2026.

International Monetary Fund – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) July 2025 update. The report titled ‘Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty’ mentioned that growth in India is projected to be 6.4% in 2025 and 2026, with both numbers revised slightly upward, reflecting a more benign external environment than assumed in the April reference forecast (as reported by Asia Law Portal). This is a 0.2 percentage points increase compared with the April 2025 WEO projection for both 2025 and 2026. The growth projection for 2025 remains unchanged at 6.5%. Global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The forecast for 2025 is 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the reference forecast for the April 2025 WEO and 0.1 percentage points higher for 2026. This reflects stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs; lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April; an improvement in financial conditions, including due to a weaker US dollar; and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.

Intellectual Property Filings Surge – IP filings in the last five years in India have increased by 44%, rising from 4,77,533 (477,533) in 2020–21 to 6,89,991 (689,991) in 2024–25. The highest growth was observed in Geographical Indications (GI) with a 380% increase, followed by Designs (266%), Patents (180%), Copyright (83%), Trademarks (28%), and Semiconductor Integrated Circuits Layout-Designs (SICLD) with a 20% rise. The government has undertaken several initiatives to enhance intellectual property (IP) activities and foster innovation and boost IP filings in India. IP laws and rules have been amended to streamline and simplify the processing of IP applications, eliminate irregularities and bottlenecks, enhance the use of IT and digital technologies. IP Oﬃces have been digitised and made available online to make the system more compact, time-bound, transparent and easier to use by applicants as well as Examiners and Registrars/Controllers. Comprehensive E-Filing System has been introduced for the online filing and submission of Patents, Designs, and Trademark applications and documents. Applicants no longer need to visit the IP office for filing and processing of their applications, with more than 95% of Patent and Trademark applications now filed online. A publicly accessible IP Dashboard has been introduced to provide real-time, comprehensive data on various categories of Intellectual Property applications, including Patents, Designs, Trademarks, Copyrights, and Geographical Indications. The dashboard can be accessed via the official website. A quick-access link to the dashboard is also available on the website’s homepage for user convenience.

Draft Data Protection Rules – The draft Digital Personal Data Protection Rules, 2025, which aim to operationalise the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023 (DPDP Act), were published for public consultation by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY), as reported by Asia Law Portal. A total number of 6,915 feedback/inputs have been received from citizens and stakeholders.

Public Sector Bank FDI – The government’s final decision on any further increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) in public sector banks (PSBs) is contingent on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) review of norms on voting rights and shareholding limits, people familiar with the matter said. The government is mandated to hold a minimum 51% stake in state-owned lenders, with overseas investment capped at 20%. The RBI is reviewing the existing structure under which voting rights for promoters of private banks are capped at 26% and financial institutions can hold a maximum 15% stake, said the people cited. The current norms mandate that promoters of non-state banks should reduce their stake in state-owned lenders, with overseas investment capped at 20%. The RBI is reviewing the existing structure under which voting rights for promoters of private banks are capped at 26% and financial institutions can hold a maximum 15% stake, said the people cited. The current norms mandate that promoters of non-state banks should reduce their stake to 26% over 15 years. The shareholding limit is capped at 10% for individuals and non-financial institutions subject to RBI approval.