Daily Newsletter: Friday August 15, 2025

Delivered to over 70,000+ industry professionals
each day, the Daily Newsletter is the definitive recap of the day’s most
relevant mortgage and real estate news and data. View the latest Newsletter below.

Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications

Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stronger core retail sales number this morning, bonds managed to hold mostly sideways until the afternoon hours.  At that point, lighter summertime Friday afternoon trading gave way to a mini snowball that took yields to their highest levels of the week.  Fed Funds futures suggested some thought behind the selling with the highest implied September rate since just before Tuesday’s CPI. All that having been said, bonds could simply be hedging their optimism ahead of next week’s Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell. In the bigger picture, little has changed since last Friday’s jobs report.

Econ Data / Events

Export prices mm (Jul)

0.1% vs 0.1% f’cast, prev 0.5%

Import prices mm (Jul)

0.4% vs 0.0% f’cast, prev -0.1%

NY Fed Manufacturing (Aug)

11.90 vs 0.0 f’cast, prev 5.50

Retail Sales (Jul)

0.5% vs 0.5% f’cast, prev 0.6%

Retail Sales (ex-autos) (Jul)

0.3% vs 0.3% f’cast, prev 0.8%

Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Jul)

0.5% vs 0.4% f’cast, prev 0.8%

Market Movement Recap

09:03 AM Mixed reaction to econ data, but broadly sideways.  10yr down 0.2bps at 4.284 and MBS up 1 tick (.03).

12:22 PM 10yr yields are now up 3.5bps on the day at 4.321. MBS are down 3 ticks (.09) on the day and just over an eighth from highs

12:51 PM just a bit weaker now.  MBS down almost an eighth on the day and more than an eighth from early rate sheets.  10yr up 4.1bps at 4.327

03:25 PM Off the very weakest levels heading into the close with MBS down an eighth and 10yr yields up 3.9bps at 4.325