Calculated Risk: YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 08:51:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch.  

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through July 2025.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were up 1.2% YoY as of July 2025, up from 0.6% YoY the previous month.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 1.1% YoY in July, up from 0.6% YoY the previous month.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through July) and housing from the PCE report (through June)

Shelter was up 3.7% year-over-year in July, down from 3.8% in June. Housing (PCE) was up 4.1% YoY in June, unchanged from 4.1% in May.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.5% YoY in July, up from 2.1% YoY in June.