The Metals Company: Game-Changer or Just a Gamble?

The Metals Company is up nearly 1400% off its lows…
And it still hasn’t made a single dollar in revenue.

They’re trying to mine nickel, cobalt, and copper — not on land, but off the ocean floor.
Which means they’re dodging China, deforestation, and half the global supply chain.

But they’re also burning cash like it’s going out of style, diluting shareholders like crazy, and betting the house on government approvals that don’t even exist yet.

Retail investors are chasing the hype.  I’m watching the dilution. And the real catalyst that hasn’t happened yet.

Formerly, DeepGreen Metals, the metals company was founded in 2011 and joined with Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corp, or SOAC, in a reverse merger in 2021 to form what is now The Metals Company, a Canadian deep-sea mining enterprise. 

TMC focuses on exploring and developing mining in the Clarion–Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Mexico. 

The area is well-known for its potentially rich polymetallic nodules, which contain metals such as nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. These base elements are critical for the production of electric vehicle batteries, renewable energy storage systems, and other clean energy technologies. 

Now, let’s get to the interesting question: why should you care as an investor?

Well, nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese are mostly mined on the surface, which leads to many ugly consequences of mining, including deforestation, habitat destruction, and toxic waste pollution. 

So, yes, having a metal source that neatly sidesteps the issues associated with on-land mining can be a compelling investment proposition. It’s especially interesting due to the accelerated adoption of EVs and renewable energy initiatives all over the world. 

However, TMC’s proposed mining operations do have their downsides. 

Deep-sea mining poses its own set of risks, including irreversible damage to marine ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as the potential release of sediment plumes that can spread toxins across ocean areas. We’ll talk more about that later. 

Stock Performance

For now, let’s get into the stock’s juicy bits. Specifically, its price movement, especially around its early years. 

The Metals Company (TMC) went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) called Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation (SOAC

So, the merger was announced in March 2021 and completed on September 9 of the same year. What’s interesting here is that SOAC, the pre-merger public company, was trading at around the $10 level before the actual merger, but then volatility spiked as September came along. 

Since then, the stock price sank and mainly traded below $2, reaching an all-time low of 51 cents per share in December 2022. 

However, TMC stock has since undergone a renaissance of sorts in 2025, and it is now trading at $7.64. For the record, that is a 466% 52-week increase, and a whopping 1,395% growth from its all-time low. 

Financials

Now, with that kind of growth, you’d think that the company reported good news in its financials around that time. Perhaps revenue spiked, or it began to become profitable. 

Well, not exactly. 

You see, The Metals Company is still in its pre-revenue stage. Most of its funding comes from the company’s capital, private investments in public equity, or PIPE funding, as well as secondary stock offerings. So its financials are mostly operational losses and cash burn, which is to be expected in a mining start-up. 

So far, TMC’s operating expenses have been irregular, with spikes in 2021 and 2022 due to costs associated with the merger, exploratory activities, and early-stage engineering and studies. Then, there was a 12% cost increase from 2023 to 2024, leading to an 11% increase in losses. But again, it’s pre-revenue, so this doesn’t give us the complete picture. 

I’d argue that a better way to gauge the company’s performance now is to examine its cash flow, which is a point that was raised in my Discord channel. 

The company’s operating cash flow has been going up since 2022, which may be taken as a good sign, depending on your outlook. 

However, the TMC has been relying on debt and secondary stock issuances to fund its operations. In 2024, management issued stocks worth more than $29 million – that’s an 80% year-over-year increase!

Not only that, TMC announced last May that it would issue 12.3 million additional common shares at $3 per share, to raise nearly $37 million, representing a 26% increase from last year. 

And on top of that, the company issued another 19.6 million common shares to Korea Zinc last June for $85.2 million. 

Dilution and Pre-Revenue Risks

TMC’s issuance of new stocks is accelerating, and it’s a rather common way of financing its operations in the short term. This means your stocks may be less valuable the more new stocks are issued, especially if the company fails to turn that expense into profit. 

Now, the effect may be less visible when the stock price is skyrocketing, as it is now, but when the chips are down and valuations are being calculated, dilution may have a significant impact. 

And if we take the issue further down the line, more shares can make it more challenging to achieve per-share profitability. Think about it: the more slices of pie there are, the thinner each slice gets. 

And with the metaphorical pie still theoretical at this point, well, it’s gonna be hard to fill up that plate. 

Dependence on Hype and Speculation

Another potential weakness I see in TMC is that there seems to be limited tangible reasons behind its explosive price movement. 

Many analysts believe that the stock’s growth this year is primarily due to the index’s rise, which in turn causes the stock to move up. Also, the US-China trade war seems to have had a positive effect. 

But China mines and sells a significant portion of the world’s critical minerals, which are essential for electronics, defense systems, and green technologies. Since the US is not exactly on the best of terms with China, it loses access to those minerals.

So, who will the US turn to to fill the gap in raw materials? Mining companies with operations in the US, like – you guessed it – TMC. 

But so far, there has been no tangible catalyst yet. The company has submitted license applications to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and CEO and Chairman Gerard Barron testified before the US Congress to highlight the benefits of deep-sea mining. 

However, these are more like sparks than a real fire. And given how flip-floppy the current US administration has been, we are far from a sure thing. And even if it were a sure thing, international laws are a different matter entirely. 

Potential Environmental Impact

And last but not least, many scientists and environmental analysts warn that deep-sea mining may have catastrophic and, even worse, irreversible effects on ocean biodiversity. It’s no joke that we know more about the moon’s surface than our ocean floors, so rushing into deep-sea mining commercialization could trigger biological disasters that we as a species are not equipped to handle. So, TMC has been facing some pushback, and it will need to prove it can mine responsibly before it can get off the ground, or the sea floor. 

But enough about doom and gloom – let’s look at what could potentially drive TMC’s price higher. 

Increasing EV & Battery Demands

The International Energy Agency estimates that global EV battery demand will grow to more than 3 Terawatt-hours in 2030, representing a massive 200% increase from 2024. 

The company’s core target elements are important components for EV batteries, so if TMC plays its cards right and everything lines up, it may be strategically positioned to meet that growing demand. 

Supply Chain Diversification

Another positive is the efforts to open up global supply lines. If there’s one thing that the US-China trade war has taught us, it’s that it’s a bad idea to depend on one country for the raw materials that keep the global economy running. 

That’s why certain countries are pushing for more diversified supply chains, such as the US-Japan Agreement and the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, among others. Again, with TMC offering a potential alternative to China’s mineral dominance, it’s no surprise the company has drawn significant investor attention. 

Is TMC a buy?

Overall, I think TMC is a compelling speculative investment, with emphasis on speculative. The global shift to green energy and the move away from China’s minerals industry may benefit it in the long run, if it can overcome the financial, regulatory, and environmental hurdles along the way. If you have a high tolerance for risk, then TMC might be worth the trouble. Even if you’re more on the conservative side, like me, TMC warrants a closer look – but at a lower price than what it’s currently trading at. I suggest looking out for dips and pullbacks. 

So that’s it for my analysis of The Minerals Company. What are your thoughts on this company? Do you think it has what it takes to turn its vision into a viable undersea business?