Stock Market Outlook – July 27 2025

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 27th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Uptrend
• On Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend for U.S. equities, after breaking out from its recent consolidation.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) gained 1.5% last week.  The index sits ~5% above the 50-day moving average and ~9% above the 200-day moving average.

All three technical indicators remain bullish.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for July 27 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Every sector improved last week, but in a reversal of recent trends, it was Healthcare ( $XLV ) outperforming and Technology ( $XLK ) underperforming.  Healthcare ( $XLV ) jumped back into a bullish bias, and Consumer Staples improved to neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 30 of 2025

All the sector styles also rose; oddly, it was Defensives ( $POWA ) outperforming, and Small Cap Growth underperforming.  Low Beta ( $SPLV ) moved to bullish bias.

Sector Style Performance from Week 30 of 2025

For the second week running, Equities ( $SPY ) outperformed and Oil ( $USO ) underperformed.  Oil and gold moved to neutral bias, and the U.S. dollar fell back to bearish after a recent rally attempt.

Asset Class Performance from Week 30 2025

COMMENTARY
For the week ahead, a full plate of economic headlines for the market to digest, including: June job openings (JOLTs), the first Q2 GDP reading, a FOMC interest rate decision,  PCE inflation, July non-farm payrolls, and ISM manufacturing manufacturing PMI.

Keep an eye on the response from assets prices, particularly treasury yields (interest rates), the U.S. dollar, and gold.  All three have been consolidating the past 6 weeks or so, and the shifts to and from neutral bias during that timeframe may indicate their respective trends are losing momentum and a shift in the macroeconomic regime is in play.

Best to Your Week!

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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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