PCE Measure of Shelter Unchanged at 4.1% YoY in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 09:01:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 3.9% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are above the Fed’s target on a 3-month basis. 

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 2.5%
Core PCE Prices: 2.6%
Core minus Housing: 2.4%