Daily Newsletter: Tuesday July 8, 2025

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Correction Starting to Level Off?

Even though very little changed during the course of the trading day, one potentially important thing happened. Rather than start weaker and continue to lose ground throughout the session, bonds managed to stop the bleeding early and then push back toward unchanged levels by the end of the day. This is the kind of thing typically seen when a corrective trend is running out of steam in the short term. While this doesn’t make the bond market immune from another motivation to sell, it suggests that the market is now open to suggestion from either bulls or bears, and that’s an upgrade from the selling bias seen on Monday.

Market Movement Recap

10:04 AM Moderately weaker overnight with some additional selling early. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.419

01:36 PM sideways all day. MBS still down an eighth and 10yr up 2.1bps at 3.877

03:33 PM Very slight recovery, but very low volatility. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 3.869