Daily Newsletter: Tuesday July 15, 2025

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What’s Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?

Heading into today’s data, we knew there was a possibility of two separate reactions–one for the top line CPI numbers and one for a deeper look at the internal components. Those internals show that tariffs are having an impact even though it was a smaller impact than many forecasters were expecting. Bonds didn’t seem to care at first. When a new glut of trades came online at the 9:30am NYSE open, that changed. Both stocks and bonds sold off sharply starting at 9:30am and this move looks far more convincing that the initial rally.

Econ Data / Events

Core MM CPI

0.228 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.1 prev

Core YY CPI

2.9 vs 3.0 f’cast, 2.8 prev

Headline MM CPI

0.3 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:36 AM after CPI 10yr yields are down 2.9bps at 4.406 and MBS are up an eighth

09:45 AM 10yr unchanged 4.434. MBS also unchanged and down just over an eighth from the highs.

11:29 AM weakness continues. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.7 bps at 4.482

02:32 PM Steady, slight selling continues. MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.488