CatIQ reduces insured loss estimate for July 2024 floods in Toronto & southern Ontario to C$899m

CatIQ, the Toronto-based independent catastrophe insurance data provider and a subsidiary of PERILS, has estimated the one-year industry loss caused by the flash flooding that impacted southern Ontario on July 15 and 16 to be CAD $899 million.

This marks CatIQ’s fifth loss estimate from the event and is down 9% from the organisation’s fourth loss estimate of CAD $991 million, which was released on January 17, 2025.

This latest estimate is also down from CatIQ’s initial loss estimate of over CAD $940 million, which was issued in August 2024.

CatIQ’s loss estimate covers property (both commercial and residential) and vehicle (motor) claims including additional loss adjustment expenses.

The firm noted that the majority of the loss figure was from personal property-related losses, which accounted for over 85% of the total claims and more than 75% of the total loss.

To recall, in July 2024, southern Ontario, including Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area, experienced extensive flash flooding sparked by heavy rainfall, with two-day rainfall amounts exceeding 120mm in some places, including at Toronto Pearson Airport (123 mm).

“The excessive rainfall was driven by a stationary boundary stretching from northern Quebec through the Upper Great Lakes and down to Colorado (USA). The prevailing flow at the surface was out of the southern USA, streaming moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward,” CatIQ commented.

CatIQ confirmed that a sixth and final market loss update from the flooding will be published on July 16, 2026, two years after the event date.

Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ, said: “The one-year data shows a modest decrease in the number of personal claims but a noticeable drop in the incurred costs, along with a corresponding decrease of about nine percent in the average personal claim size. That suggests that, in addition to companies releasing reserve amounts, some claims may have been feeling the effects of policy and coverage limits as they’ve been resolved.

“With about 90 percent of total claims reporting as closed as of the one-year mark, it will be interesting to see if those yet-outstanding claims follow the same trend by the final loss estimate issued next year.”