Brian Niccol turnaround taking hold

Wall Street is seeing early signs that Starbucks‘ turnaround is taking hold, despite a quarterly earnings miss and another quarter of shrinking same-store sales.

“The focus for Starbucks’ third fiscal quarter was less on the results (which were below Street expectations) and more on proof points on the pace of the potential recovery ahead,” William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

The company reported weaker-than-expected earnings for its fiscal third quarter on Tuesday evening. Its same-store sales fell for the sixth straight quarter, but executives told analysts on the company’s earnings call that traffic improved sequentially every month of the quarter.

Another promising sign came in traffic growth from non-Starbucks Rewards members. For several years, the number of Starbucks customers who don’t belong to its loyalty program has fallen, making the cohort the primary culprit for the chain’s recent sluggish sales.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich entitled his Wednesday research note about the company’s results “green shoots getting greener.” He pointed to CEO Brian Niccol’s comments that the turnaround is ahead of schedule, the accelerated rollout of its new “Green Apron Service” labor program and mobile app changes, among other factors.

The labor changes aim to create a more welcoming environment in cafes while ensuring fast service.

Starbucks also teased new menu items coming in fiscal 2026, including protein cold foam and improved food options. TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles wrote in a research note on Wednesday that he has greater confidence that Starbucks’ same-store sales will continue to improve due to the company’s “more aggressive innovation agenda.”

But while many analysts presented a bullish case for the company’s turnaround, not all investors are sold on Niccol and his “Back to Starbucks” strategy. The comeback is taking longer than originally anticipated, based on Wall Street’s expectations of when the company’s same-store sales will grow again.

Shares of Starbucks rose less than 1% in morning trading on Wednesday, after climbing as much as 5% in extended trading following the results. The stock has risen about 2% this year, giving it a market cap of about $106 billion.