NASDAQ’s
Midyear Rally officially ended today up 3.3%, exceeding its typical average
gain of 2.5% since 1985. However, the recent 21-year seasonal pattern suggests
it could run a bit longer until around monthly options expiration on July 18.
It is the latter days of July where the market can and
historically has run into some weakness. This year we have been hearing a fair
amount of discussion about a mid-July market peak followed by the elevated
potential for a market retreat sometime during August, September, and perhaps
into early October.
The market still has some room to run ahead of this
historically weak period. Our NASDAQ Best 8
Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal is imminent. When it turns negative, we
will review market conditions and make any necessary adjustments in the
portfolios.
