Almanac Trader — August has been even weaker in post-election years

Agriculture and farming made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best DJIA month from 1901 to 1951. (See page 42 of the 2025 Almanac comparing the seasonal patterns of DJIA before and after 1950.) Now it is the worst DJIA and Russell 2000 and second worst S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 month over the last 37 years, 1988-2024 with average performance ranging from +0.1% by NASDAQ to a –0.8% loss by DJIA. In 2022, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 all declined over 4% in August and in 2023 they declined 1.8% or more.

In post-election years, Augusts’ rankings are little changed, but performance has been negative across the board. August is the worst month in post-election years for DJIA and Russell 1000 and second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Average declines in post-election year Augusts range from –0.5% by Russell 2000 to –1.5% by DJIA. Each index has also seen more declining post-election year Augusts than positive.