Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 1st = Uptrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
- Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Uptrend
- On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook stays in an uptrend, after equities found support at the 200-day moving average and rallied out of the Memorial Day weekend.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) gained 1.9% last week. The index sits ~5% above the 50-day moving average and ~2% above the 200-day moving average.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for June 01 2025
The ADX, Institutional Activity, and On-Balance Volume are all in bullish territory.
S&P Sector Performance from Week 22 of 2025
Real Estate ( $XLRE ) led sectors higher last week, and bounced back to bullish bias after testing a change last week. Energy ( $XLE ) was the worst performer.
Sector Style Performance from Week 22 of 2025
All sector styles gained last week, with Momentum ( $MTUM ) leading the way and Defensive ( $POWA ) bringing up the rear. High Dividend ( $SPHD ) improved to neutral bias.
Asset Class Performance from Week 22 2025
Stocks and Bonds ( $SPY & $IEF ) were the winning plays, while Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) ran into some liquidation flows and dropped 6%. Bonds ( $IEF ) moved from bearish to neutral bias.
COMMENTARY
After Tuesday’s opening rally, equities didn’t make much progress and suffered from a lot of intraday volatility. Macro data was in-line with expectations, and NVIDIA earnings were well received.
After rising more than 7% in March on tariff front-running, Durable Goods Orders fell 6% in April. No surprise here.
Last month’s FOMC minutes were released Wednesday. Participants felt tariff increases were significantly larger and more extensive than anticipated, and noted a high level of uncertainty around trade policy and resulting impacts to the economy. That said, they feel they’re well positioned, choosing to wait for more clarity from inflation and labor data.
As for the Federal Reserves favored inflation measure, both Headline and Core PCE fell 20 basis points year over year, inching closer to the Feds 2% target.
Finally, the second GDP revision was revised higher by 10 bps, but still negative Q1.
This week, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, JOLTS, and non-farm payroll data are released.
Typically, late May to early June is a strong period for equities, then performance wanes as we close out the month. Headline volatility remains a risk, with markets hyper-fixated on tariff news. Key levels to watch are the prior all time highs from February and the gaps in price action from April and May.
Best to Your Week!
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