by Calculated Risk on 6/21/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key reports this week are May New and Existing Home sales, the third estimate of Q1 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for May and the April Case-Shiller house price index.
For manufacturing, the June Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.
Fed Chair Powell testifies on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.
—– Monday, June 23rd —–
The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.
Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.03 million SAAR.
—– Tuesday, June 24th —–
This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The National index was up 3.4% year-over-year in March.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for May 2024.
10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee
—– Wednesday, June 25th —–
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
The consensus is for 710 thousand SAAR, down from 743 thousand in April.
10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
—– Thursday, June 26th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 247 thousand from 245 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 0.2% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the second estimate of a 0.2% decrease.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 4.5% increase in durable goods orders.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in this index.
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for June.
During the Day: Census Bureau releases the Vintage 2024 Population Estimates
—– Friday, June 27th —–
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.5% YoY.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for June).
4:30 PM: Federal Reserve Board announces results from its annual bank stress test
