by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 08:55:00 AM
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through May 2025.
Housing (PCE) was up 4.1% YoY in May, down from 4.2% in April and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.
Key measures are below the Fed’s target on a 3-month basis.
3-month annualized change:
PCE Price Index: 1.1%
Core PCE Prices: 1.7%
Core minus Housing: 1.1%
There appears to be some residual seasonality, especially in Q1.
