Historically July is the best performing month of the third quarter, however traditionally tepid August and September tend to make the comparison easy. “Hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% combined with strong performances in 2013, 2018, and 2022, have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 have been up ten straight Julys (2015-2024). NASDAQ declined 0.8% in July 2024, ending its streak of July gains at nine in a row. Russell 2000 has been up eight times in the same period (down in 2015 and 2021). Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 76, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2025).
Post-election-year July rankings are stellar, ranking #1 for DJIA and S&P 500, averaging gains of 2.1% and 2.2% respectively (since 1950). For NASDAQ (since 1971) post-election-year Julys rank #2 with an average gain of 3.2%. July ranks #3 in post-election years for Russell 1000 and 2000 since 1979.
Join Almanac Investor to get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in an easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single location available at the click of a mouse.
